Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (39090)	8/25/2005 9:19:26 PM
From: Elroy Jetson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

I sold my stocks one year before the decline in April 2000. Intended to sell at the top, but I was early - I have always been early. In any event I have found being early to be far superior to being late. With this in mind, I am unlikely to call the top in real estate prices either in my local market or nationally. But I believe the top of the real estate market is over-due. From a standpoint of sentiment, the environment today seems a lot like the period between November 1989 and March 1990. a.) I can recall in September 1989, there appeared to be no top to the real estate market - except that my business partner and I had not been able to make any economic sense of our developer client's projects for more than a year. Their projects needed more than a 35% annual housing appreciation rate to break-even. b.) In November 1989 the largest broker in Los Angeles, Fred Sands, announced that the slowing appreciation rate in home prices was an unusual buying opportunity which would not last long. c.) In early April 1990, most real estate agents expected a brisk selling season. By the third week in April it suddenly dawned on most in the real estate business that there were no buyers and the boom was over. If you wanted to sell your home, a 25% discount from previous sale prices might bring you a buyer. The difference in sentiment between the second and third week of April 1990 was palpable. A fear and quiet suddenly swept over Los Angeles. .