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Pastimes : Hurricane and Severe Weather Tracking -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim McMannis who wrote (2173)	8/26/2005 11:52:28 AM
From: CalculatedRisk	Respond to of 26016

Katrina is really cookin' ... this storm appears a bigger threat than Dennis. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY DISCUSSION IS ONLY TO MODIFY THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITIES. RECENT DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A SURFACE WIND OF 83 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST EYEWALL. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 971 MB ALSO CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 88 KT SURFACE WINDS. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 85 KT...OR 100 MPH. GIVEN THE RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE AND THE SHARP PRESSURE DROP...RAPID INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTERWARDS...STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO NEAR CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER GIVEN THE VERY WARM GULF WATERS BENEATH THE HURRICANE AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY 48 HOURS nhc.noaa.gov

To: Jim McMannis who wrote (2173)	8/26/2005 1:29:02 PM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26016

It sure looks that way. Lots of time and very warm water to gain strength to CAT 4. Still amazed it went from 40 to 75 mph in a matter of hours over the Bahamas. Looks like we escaped this one. But from Ft Lauderdale and south power outage widespread and pretty chaotic on the streets. Probably what folks in West Palm and north experienced last year.