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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: cnyndwllr who wrote (169935)8/26/2005 4:46:30 PM
From: one_less  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500
 
"Now, if you want to tell me all the "gains" you think we've made and will make as a result of our bloody adventure in Iraq, "

I am open to such a discussion but that comment certainly does not reflect the content of these past few posts.

"If, however, you want to continue to believe that the people who think like you understand the danger and the rest of us are ignoring it, or care more about politics or whatever, then that's fine too, only don't expect me to waste my time.

I absolutely do believe that and it is further verified for me on a daily basis. That was the point of my original post and you have confirmed for me that you would prefer to ignore the substantive dangers developing in Iraq in favor of continued discussion on the emaciated path of lw/rw demagoguery.

>>>...By the way, you say; "I read some of the comments Cindy made about her hopes for upcoming elections>" like that's a bad thing.


You asked the question about why I thought you and Cindy were ranting about a 'Big Picture' that doesn't connect to your narrow small picture view, and I explained it for you.

You've just validated that view. Thanks, and there is nothing wrong with the democratic process.



To: cnyndwllr who wrote (169935)8/26/2005 5:06:15 PM
From: one_less  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 281500
 
"Now, if you want to tell me all the "gains" ...

Good topic. I don't think we can make a simple 'factual' list of gains that stands clean on its own.

Anytime you enter into a change mode you are bound to disrupt the equalibrium of the status quo. With that you have guaranteed costs to any benefit that might ensue. There are also risks that the the benefit may not be justified by the costs. We are currently in the midst of the most tremendous effort to change the conditions of the world since WWII. The hardship we are suffering and the costs of our operations are a tremendous burden. We have only the very real threats and the responsibility to struggle for a better world to justify our continued struggle at this point.

It is useless to discuss realized benefits (gains) at this point. It would be equivalent to evaluating the benefits of the Civil War in the USA during Sherman's March. You may recall that was the slash and burn campaign that destroyed everything for sixty miles wide as he marched through the South to break the supply lines to southern troops.



To: cnyndwllr who wrote (169935)8/27/2005 10:29:08 AM
From: Mary Cluney  Read Replies (8) | Respond to of 281500
 
If, however, you want to continue to believe that the people who think like you understand the danger and the rest of us are ignoring it, or care more about politics or whatever, then that's fine too, only don't expect me to waste my time.

I don't seem to understand all the passionate people who share those opinions. I more or less agree with you.

I think I understand where Pat Robertson is coming from, but I don't think these people you are having conversation with agree with Pat Robertson.

I think I understand where Bill Kristol is coming from, and again, I don't think most of the people you are addressing share Kristols views.

I think I understand where Steve Forbes (WSJ, etc) are coming from, and again, I don't think most of the people you are having conversation with understand or share Steve Forbes/WSJ views.

What is amazing to me is how all these people are willing to agree to disagree and somehow tap into all the super patriots and push their hot buttons (eg, we are bigger and stronger than anyone else, we want what we want, and the only thing that is stopping us from getting what we want are the "peaceniks" in our own country who do not understand how we can make this into a better world - if everyone else does what we tell them to do).

As long as this coalition holds up, I don't see how Democrats, or anyone else, will ever recapture the Whitehouse.



To: cnyndwllr who wrote (169935)8/27/2005 12:40:51 PM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 281500
 
Why We Must Leave Iraq
_______________________________________

By Larry C. Johnson
Davidcorn.com
Thursday 25 August 2005

Sometimes in life there are no good options. It is part of our nature to always assume that we can fix a problem. But in life there are many problems or situations where there is no pleasant solution. If you were at the Windows on the World Restaurant in the North Tower of the World Trade Center at 9 am on September 11, 2001 you had no good options. You could choose to jump or to burn to death. Some choice.

A hard, clear-eyed look at the current situation in Iraq reveals that we are confronted with equally bad choices. If we stay we are facilitating the creation of an Islamic state that will be a client of Iran. If we pull out we are likely to leave the various ethnic groups of Iraq to escalate the civil war already underway. In my judgment we have no alternative but to pull our forces out of Iraq. Like it or not, such a move will be viewed as a defeat of the United States and will create some very serious foreign policy and security problems for us for years to come. However, we are unwilling to make the sacrifices required to achieve something approximating victory. And, what would victory look like? At a minimum we should expect a secular society where the average Iraqi can move around the country without fear of being killed or kidnapped. That is not the case nor is it on the horizon.

We may even be past the point of no return where we could impose changes that would put Iraq back on course to be a secular, democratic nation without sparking a major Shiite counteroffensive. Therefore the time has come to minimize further unnecessary loss of life by our troops and re-craft a new foreign and security policy for the Middle East.

The Current Situation

Iraq has devolved into a tripartite state, split among the Kurds in the North, the Shias in the South, and Sunni tribes in the middle. While things are relatively peaceful in the North and South, the central part of Iraq is in the grips of a defacto civil war. Most of the trained and deployed Iraqi police and military forces are Shia. Most of their operations are directed against Sunni targets. The Sunnis do not feel that they have a legitimate voice in the political process. As a result they have decided to fight.

The Shia majority, long oppressed in Iraq, are not willing, nor likely, to relinquish their new status as the tops dogs. They are receiving significant intelligence, economic, and political support from the Islamist government in Iran. The Shia also are well positioned to control a significant portion of Iraq's vast oil resources. They are not likely to share this wealth with the Sunnis.

There is no effective national government in Iraq. The current group meeting inside the Green Zone to draft the constitution has no real clout. True power is held by tribal chieftains and religious leaders scattered around country. Those leaders are playing both sides of the fence - keeping a toe in the political negotiations in Baghdad while providing money and protection to insurgents.

The insurgency in Iraq is comprised of at least 20 groups. Some of these are Baathists, some are Sunni Islamic extremists, and a few are Shia. They agree on one thing - the United States is an invader and must be expelled. While there is no single leader who can claim the status or mandate as did Ho Chi Minh during the Vietnam days, the insurgents in Iraq are as firm and serious as those we faced in Vietnam.

The continued presence of US combat forces and our operations against Iraqi civilians is recruiting new jihadists from around the Muslim world. Notwithstanding US efforts to win the "hearts and minds" of the Iraqi people, the sectarian strife and the images of US soldiers kicking in the doors of peoples' homes while searching for insurgents is creating more anger rather than support.

The Sunni insurgents have control of the battlefield in the central belt of Iraq. Even today the United States military cannot keep a six mile stretch of highway open that runs from downtown Baghdad to the International Airport. US diplomatic personnel and many key Iraqi Government officials live inside a security ghetto known euphemistically as the Green Zone. Even during the bleakest days of the war in South Vietnam, US diplomats and soldiers could travel freely around Saigon without fear of being killed in bomb blast or kidnapped. We don't have that luxury in Baghdad.

Options?

We could potentially defeat the Sunni insurgents if we were willing and able to deploy sufficient troops to control the key infiltration routes that run along the Tigris and Euphrates River valleys. But we are neither willing nor able. It would require at least 380,000 troops devoted exclusively to that mission. Part of that mission would entail killing anyone who moved into controlled areas, such as roadways. In adopting those kinds of rules of engagement we would certainly increase the risk of killing innocent civilians. But, we would impose effective control over those routes. That is a prerequisite to gaining control over the insurgency.

We cannot meet the increased manpower requirements in Iraq without a draft. We do not currently have enough troops in the Army and the Marine Corps to supply and sustain that size of force in the field. But, even with a draft, we would be at least 15 months away from having the new batch of trained soldiers ready to deploy. More importantly, there is no political support for a draft. In other words, we're unwilling to do what is required to even have a shot at winning.

While the insurgency is not likely to acquire sufficient strength to fight and defeat our forces directly in large set piece battles, they do have the wherewithal to destroy infrastructure and challenge our control of lines of communication. The ultimate test of a government's legitimacy is whether or not it can protect its citizens from threats foreign and domestic. Thus far the Iraqi Government has made scant progress on this front. Today's attack in central Baghdad, by a uniformed unit of masked insurgents, represents another disturbing milestone in the continued growth of the insurgency. One of these days we should not be surprised when an insurgent force breaches the Green Zone and takes some US diplomats hostage.

An ideal, but unlikely outcome, is that the secularists, who are trying desperately to craft a legitimate government, will persuade a sufficient number of Shia and Sunni leaders to turn their back on a religious-based government. Unfortunately, they don't control weapons or militia. Force remains the ultimate means for deciding a country's fate. In this case the guns are in the hands of those who favor an Islamic state over a secular nation.

If the United States tries to intervene now to compel power sharing on behalf of Sunni interests we are likely to trigger a backlash by the Shia majority. Mullahs like Moqtada al Sadr have demonstrated that they can mobilize combat units to kill Americans when their interests are challenged.

There are some indications that once we are out of the picture that the insurgency will turn on itself. As noted earlier a significant portion of the insurgents are not Islamic extremists. There is evidence that the different groups will fight each other. Sunni tribal chiefs are not likely to cede control of their territory to foreign Islamists once the United States is no longer on the scene. Our departure will likely lead to a brutal civil war, but such a war creates opportunities for the United States where it can rebuild its credibility with those forces who represent modernity and secular progress.

So What's Next?

Staying the course and enduring further casualties while the insurgency grows stronger is an insane policy. If we persist on that front we will end up strengthening the hand of Islamic extremists and their role within the Iraqi insurgency.

Our choice is simple - either we invest in the military resources and personnel required to defeat the Sunni insurgents and allow the Shia and Kurds to consolidate power or we withdraw and let the Shia, Sunni, and Kurds find their own solution. We cannot ask our soldiers and Marines to give their lives and sacrifice their bodies for a new Islamic state. It is true that our withdrawal will create a major vacuum and damage our prestige. But the alternative, i.e., that we stay and try to train up sufficient Iraqi forces and help the fledgling Islamic Government get on its feet, will leave us the favorite target of insurgents and terrorists. And after we have shed the blood of our sons and daughters in trying to create a new government that will be controlled by Islamists, those Islamists will ultimately insist that we leave Iraq and no longer meddle in their affairs.

Rosy scenario does not live in Iraq. Until we come to grips with this truth American soldiers will continue to be killed and maimed for no good reason.
__________________________________________________

Larry C. Johnson is a former Deputy Director of the US State Department's Office of Counter Terrorism, who has spoken out for censure of Bush. Earlier, he worked for the Central Intelligence Agency and is an expert in the fields of terrorism, aviation security and crisis and risk management. Johnson is CEO and co-founder of BERG Associates, LLC, an international firm that helps multinational corporations and financial institutions identify strategic opportunities, manage risks, and counter threats posed by terrorism and money laundering. He is a Republican who supported and raised funds for George W. Bush's 2000 presidential campaign.

truthout.org



To: cnyndwllr who wrote (169935)9/6/2005 3:29:25 PM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 281500
 
NorthCom was ready for a rescue immediately, but never got orders. The comments that follow the article are interesting, especially #s 4, 13, 14, 25, 53 and 56...

thecarpetbaggerreport.com



To: cnyndwllr who wrote (169935)12/9/2005 1:22:31 PM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 281500
 
Contemporaneous government statements about the Vietnam War

glenngreenwald.blogspot.com

Howard Dean’s comment the other day contesting the idea that the U.S. will "win" in Iraq provoked some astounding hysteria, but another, more substantive comment which he made in the same interview was essentially ignored:

"I've seen this before in my life. This is the same situation we had in Vietnam. Everybody then kept saying, 'just another year, just stay the course, we'll have a victory.' Well, we didn't have a victory, and this policy cost the lives of an additional 25,000 troops because we were too stubborn to recognize what was happening."

Whatever else one thought of Dean’s remarks, and whatever one’s views are on the propriety of analogizing the conflict in Iraq with Vietnam, Dean’s equating of the Bush Administration’s statements about the Iraq war to the statements which Americans heard from their Government throughout the duration of the Vietnam War was absolutely, indisputably accurate as a matter of historical fact.

Much of the American population is too young to remember how it was that the combat phase of the Vietnam War dragged on from 1965 until 1975, with virtually no progress, culminating in clear American defeat.

But a review of what Americans were being told about the war as it was being waged – the falsely optimistic reports from the Executive Branch and military leaders, the endless promises of imminent improvement which never arrived, the equating of anti-war sentiment with surrender and cowardice, and even the misleading Governmental accounts of the Gulf of Tonkin incident which manipulated a compliant Congress into initially giving Johnson war authority – reveals striking similarities in both rhetoric and substance with respect to the Government’s claims about Vietnam and Iraq.

Following are representative statements made by Presidents Johnson and Nixon, military leaders, and others regarding the Vietnam War was as it evolved. These are all contemporaneous statements made at the time, and are thus free of any retrospective interpretation or distortion.

The similarities between them and the statements we have been hearing, and continue to hear, about Iraq are self-evident and require no explanation:

INTERVIEW WITH U.S. ARMY MAJOR ROBERT RYAN, 1962:

Q: Major, how would you say the war was going in your sector?

A: Well, I think here, lately, the... it's going a lot better; I think we're beginning to win the people over; our operations are going better. We're actually getting VC.

Q: What evidence do you have that the... you're winning the people over?

A: Well, we've got the "strategic hamlet" program going on. And when we go out on these operations, it seems like the people are more friendly. Several times recently we've had people warn the Vietnamese troops that there was an ambush ahead, or something like that. This means the people are getting on our side.

John Kennedy Press Conference, December 12, 1962:

Q: It was just a year ago that you ordered stepped-up aid to Vietnam. Seems to be a good deal of discouragement about the progress. Can you give us your assessment?

A: No, we are putting in a major effort in Vietnam. As you know, we have uh, have about ten or 11 times as many men there as we had a year ago. They are... We've had a number of casualties. We've put in an awful lot of equipment. We've been going ahead with the strategic hamlet proposal. In some phases the military program has been quite successful. There is great difficulty, however, in fighting a guerrilla war; you need ten to one, or 11 to one, especially in terrain as difficult as South Vietnam. But I'm, uh... so we're not, uh... we don't see the end of the tunnel; but, I must say, I don't think it's darker than it was a year ago -- in some ways, lighter.

Robert McNamara, in South Vietnam, 1964:

We are here to emphasize that the United States will maintain its interest and its presence in your country. There is no question whatsoever of our abandoning that interest. We'll stay for as long as it takes. We shall provide whatever help is required to win the battle against the Communist insurgents.

U.S. Navy Film, omitting critical facts in order to falsely depict the Gulf of Tonkin incident as an unprovoked North Vietnamese attack on the U.S.S. Maddox:

In international waters in the Gulf of Tonkin, destroyers of the United States Navy are assigned routine patrols from time to time. Sunday, August the 2, 1964, the destroyer Maddox was on such a patrol. Shortly after noon, the calm of the day is broken as general quarters sound.

In a deliberate and unprovoked action, three North Vietnam PT boats unleash a torpedo attack against the Maddox. At once, the enemy patrol boats are brought under fire by the destroyer.

Comments in 1964 reflecting newly resolute support for war in the wake of those Gulf of Tonkin claims:

MAN-ON-THE-STREET INTERVIEWS:

First Man: Well, I think that President Johnson has done the correct thing. I really do.

Second Man: I don't think that he could have done otherwise. Especially when they attacked the American flag, yeah.

Third Man: I'm behind him on it. I'm not for Johnson. I'm for Goldwater. But I'm behind him on this.

JAMES THOMSON: The minute incident number one happened, the attack on our ships, the resolution was brought right back off the shelf, put right to Congress and of course, after incident number two, sailed through with virtually no dissent. A blank check.

SENATOR WILLIAM FULBRIGHT, war supporter:Well, I think it's a very clear demonstration of the unity of the country behind the policies that are being followed by the President in South Vietnam, and more specifically, of the action that was taken in response to the attack upon our destroyers. It shows a practically unanimous approval. It was unanimous in the House, and only two dissented in the Senate.

SENATOR WAYNE MORSE (one of two Senators to vote against the war authorization): Being in the minority never proves that you're wrong. In fact, history is going to record that Senator Greuning and I voted in the interest of the American people this morning when we voted against this resolution.

And I'd have the American people remember what this resolution really is. It's a resolution which seeks to give the President of the United States the power to make war without a declaration of war.

PRESIDENT JOHNSON, July 28, 1965:

We do not want an expanding struggle with consequences that no one can foresee. Nor will we bluster or bully or flaunt our power. But we will not surrender. And we will not retreat. We intend to convince the Communists that we cannot be defeated by force of arms or by superior power. I have asked the commanding general, General Westmoreland, what more he needs to meet this mounting aggression. He has told me, and we will meet his needs.

GEN. WILLIAM WESTMORELAND, press conference in October 1965, after the slaughter of 155 US troops at Landing Zone Albany, in the battle of Ia Drang:

"I consider this an unprecedented victory. At no time during the engagement were American troops forced to withdraw or move back from their positions, except for tactical manoeuvres. The enemy fled from the scene."

President Johnson's State of the Union Address, 1966

The enemy is no longer close to victory. Time is no longer on his side. There is no cause to doubt the American commitment.Our decision to stand firm has been matched by our desire for peace.

And we will continue to help the people of South Vietnam care for those that are ravaged by battle, create progress in the villages, and carry forward the healing hopes of peace as best they can amidst the uncertain terrors of war.

And let me be absolutely clear: The days may become months, and the months may become years, but we will stay as long as aggression commands us to battle.

President Johnson's State of the Union Address, 1967

So our test is not whether we shrink from our country's cause when the dangers to us are obvious and close at hand, but, rather, whether we carry on when they seem obscure and distant -- and some think that it is safe to lay down our burdens. . . .

Our men in that area -- there are nearly 500,000 now -- have borne well "the burden and the heat of the day." Their efforts have deprived the Communist enemy of the victory that he sought and that he expected a year ago. We have steadily frustrated his main forces. General Westmoreland reports that the enemy can no longer succeed on the battlefield.

So I must say to you that our pressure must be sustained -- and will be sustained -- until he realizes that the war he started is costing him more than he can ever gain.

VICE PRESIDENT HUBERT HUMPHREY, October 1967:

And may I say that despite public opinion polls -- none of which may I say have ever been friendly toward a nation's commitment in battle -- despite criticism, despite understandable impatience, we mean to stick it out, until aggression is turned back and until a just and honorable peace can be achieved, until the job is done. That is the policy of the President of the United States, the Vice President of the United States and the Congress of the United States. So let people understand that.

General Westmoreland and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Ernest Wheerler, November 16, 1967:

REPORTER: How do you see it, General?

GENERAL WESTMORELAND: Very very encouraged. I've never been more encouraged during my entire, almost four years in this country. I think we're making real progress. Everybody is very optimistic that I know of, who is intimately associated with our effort there.

GENERAL EARLE WHEELER (Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff): We feel that on the military side there has been substantial progress over the past two years, that in the last six months, the progress has been even more rapid than in the 18 months before that.

PRESIDENT JOHNSON, December 22, 1967:

All the challenges have been met. The enemy is not beaten but he knows that he has met his master in the field.

Gen. William Westmoreland, February, 1968:

While he expected the siege to continue for a few more days, he said, there were signs it was "about to run out of steam."

The next day, Westmoreland's headquarters put out this communiqué: "Although the enemy raided numerous cities and towns throughout the republic and achieved some temporary success, they have failed to take and hold any major installations or localities. Although some enemy units are still occupying positions in a few cities, they are rapidly being driven out."

War hawk Joseph Alsop, column in The Washington Post, February 1, 1968

"We are already engulfed in another spate of warnings that all is hopeless in Vietnam because of the attack on the U.S. Embassy and the other V.C. efforts in Saigon and other cities. In reality, however, this flurry of V.C. activities in urban centers will almost certainly prove to have just the opposite meaning in the end. The nearest parallel is probably the fruitless Japanese use of Kamikaze pilots in the Second World War's final phase."

GEN. EARLE G. WHEELER, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, excusing the photographed 1968 execution of a bound prisoner by South Vietnamese General Nguyen Ngoc Loan:

Wheeler expressed a "sense of revulsion at barbarous acts and summary executions," but then added that the killing outside the Vietnam pagoda had happened "more in a flash of outrage" than in an act of cold blood.

PRESIDENT LYNDON JOHNSON, March 1968:

Now to meet the needs of these fighting men, we shall do whatever is required.Make no mistake about it. I don't want a man in here to go back home thinking otherwise. We are going to win!

Gen. William Westmoreland, March, 1968:

In 1968 a new phase is now starting. We have reached an important point when the end begins to come into view.

President Nixon, May 5, 1969:

We can have honest debate about whether we should have entered the war. We can have honest debate about the past conduct of the war. But the urgent question today is what to do now that we are there, not whether we should have entered on this course, but what is required of us today.

President Nixon, November 3, 1969:

For the future of peace, precipitate withdrawal would thus be a disaster of immense magnitude.

A nation cannot remain great if it betrays its allies and lets down its friends. Our defeat and humiliation in South Vietnam without question would promote recklessness in the councils of those great powers who have not yet abandoned their goals of world conquest. This would spark violence wherever our commitments help maintain the peace-in the Middle East, in Berlin, eventually even in the Western Hemisphere.

Ultimately, this would cost more lives. . . . .

The defense of freedom is everybody's business-not just Americas business. And it is particularly the responsibility of the people whose freedom is threatened. In the previous administration, we Americanized the war in Vietnam. In this administration, we are Vietnamizing the search for peace. . . .

And now we have begun to see the results of this long overdue change in American policy in Vietnam: After 5 years of Americans going into Vietnam, we are finally bringing American men home. By December 15, over 60,000 men will have been withdrawn from South Vietnam-including 20 percent of all of our combat forces. The South Vietnamese have continued to gain in strength. As a result they have been able to take over combat responsibilities from our American troops. . . . .

Two other significant developments have occurred since this administration took office: Enemy infiltration, infiltration which is essential if they are to launch a
major attack, over the last 3 months is less than 20 percent of what it was over the same period last year. Most important-United States casualties have declined during the last 2 months to the lowest point in 3 years.

None of this proves that Iraq is Vietnam. It may be that what was said year after year in Vietnam to justify the continuation of the war was false and inaccurate, whereas the same exact things being told to us today about Iraq are true.

But what it does prove is that Howard Dean's statement was historically factual:

"I've seen this before in my life. This is the same situation we had in Vietnam. Everybody then kept saying, 'just another year, just stay the course, we'll have a victory.' Well, we didn't have a victory, and this policy cost the lives of an additional 25,000 troops because we were too stubborn to recognize what was happening."

Many of Bush's statements and those from our Generals and war pundits are not just similar but almost verbatim to what was said in Vietnam in order to convince the public to support ongoing war and to attack those who favored an end to the war. Because all of this occurred almost 40 years ago, memories have faded and many, many people did not live through it.

For that reason, it is incomparably valuable to go back and review what was being said at the time. If nothing else, it enables one to assess the Bush Administration's claims about Iraq with some historical perspective.