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To: Moominoid who wrote (68164)	8/27/2005 11:17:36 AM
From: Slagle	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Moominoid Re: "flatter curve" You are apparently mean improvements in labor productivity due to automation and I agree that there have been great improvements there, though even there there are limits due to the "learning curve" effect. That is not what I mean. I am making reference to the sheer amount of feedstocks, energy, and naturally derived materials that we use. That IS rising and at a faster rate that world population growth. I mean things like asphalt, portland cement, plastics, paper, fiber, synthetic rubber, glass and thousands of other things. Due to the "learning curve" you cite we years ago squeezed most of the efficiency gains, with regards to both energy requirements AND the raw material conversion ratio out of all these processes that was possible. Surely there will be marginal improvements in the future, but small percentage wise improvements, not orders of magnitude revolutions. Not for hundreds, maybe thousands of years, and quite possibly never-ever. But these little marginal improvements will be utterly overwhelmed by large scale increases in demand. To meet this demand we will require corresponding increases in the raw materials feedstocks and also in the energy required to process the mountains of material. Lot of this stuff you hear today is pure hype. Take the "hydrogen economy". Just where in the hell is the basic input, the hydrogen itself, going to come from? There is no new technology on the horizon that could produce portland cement from the air or oil from water. Futurists years ago could always hype "fusion" but fusion is a bust. And they would put on their Buck Rodgers hat and drop hints of "breaking the hyperspace barrier" and "anti-gravity". That doesn't wash any more so they are reduced to hyping "cyberspace". Slagle