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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: energyplay who wrote (68200)	8/28/2005 6:39:28 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

<<New Orleans ... crawfish>> ... tried some at the club buffet, chilled, very good. On energy, Barrons had the following to say ... online.barrons.com COMMODITIES CORNER Heating Oil to Chill Out? By SPENCER JAKAB WINTER CAME EARLY THIS YEAR to the heating-fuel markets. Christmas came early, too, for traders fortunate enough to have long positions in natural-gas or heating-oil futures. Summertime is when warm weather allows inventories of heating fuels to be rebuilt, but demand doesn't fade away completely. Natural gas is used by electric generators and industry and diesel, a lower-sulfur version of heating oil, is used for transport and generation. Unusually high demand for both fuels spooked the markets this summer, stoking supply worries for the upcoming winter. "We've had a significantly different dynamic this summer than we've ever seen before," says Mike Schick, president of the consulting firm Energy Analytics. Heating-oil futures hit an all-time record recently, which is not surprising given their tight relation to soaring crude oil. But what was odd was the scramble for the fuel seen earlier this summer when the onset of the driving season normally focuses traders' attention firmly on gasoline. From mid-May through mid-June, heating-oil futures rallied by 18 cents a gallon versus gasoline futures, ultimately leaving them 11 cents a gallon more expensive. Over the past five years, gasoline traded at an average premium of 19.5 cents to heating oil during the same time frame, and never at a discount. "This has been a surprise because it's been counterseasonal in nature," says Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch & Associates. "Heating oil moving to such a huge premium at the beginning of the summer is a very unusual scenario." The culprit was seen as unexpectedly strong global diesel demand, particularly from China. Natural gas was even more remarkable. Though some analysts had warned that the massive buildout of gas-fired generation would eventually lead to a supply squeeze in the event of high air-conditioning demand, traders were caught flatfooted by 11 consecutive weeks of above-normal temperatures. A hefty surplus of 266 billion cubic feet of gas storage versus year-ago levels in April was completely eroded, turning into a small deficit by late August. Prices responded in kind, rocketing 60% higher between late May and mid-August. Given the surprising strength in demand for these fuels during the "off season," traders are casting a nervous eye towards the heating season. Last winter saw an average spot month futures price of natural gas of $6.78 per million British thermal units, but January futures are now more than 62% higher at $11. Heating-oil futures are 40% higher than the average spot month level a year ago at around $1.97 a gallon. It all adds up to sharply higher heating bills this winter, and some traders think it will get worse. "We've got all the earmarks of a squeeze this winter if there's sizable demand," says Guy Gleichmann, president of the futures broker United Strategic Investors Group. A recent prediction by influential meteorological firm AccuWeather calls for a cold winter in the Northeastern U.S., though analysts caution it's too early to give much credence to such forecasts. "In the end, what happens this winter depends on the weather, but I certainly don't know what that's going to be and nobody else does," says Andy Weissman, chairman of the investment firm Energy Ventures Group. Nonetheless, Weissman points out that last winter was fairly mild, which means that the odds are that demand for fuel is likely to be higher this winter. For the gas market, he says underlying demand growth plus normal weather will translate into 225-275 billion cubic feet of extra demand over last year. This lessens the market's margin for error and he sees a risk of gas prices "several dollars higher" than they are now. The implications for heating oil are similar. After a tumultuous summer, those who view such predictions with skepticism can console themselves with the fact that inventory levels of both natural gas and heating oil should be above five-year average levels before the first snowfall. But with the prospect of a scary new seasonality to heating-fuel markets, the fear factor may pump up prices even more in the futures pits. CRUDE OIL FELL FRIDAY as selling picked up as worries eased over Hurricane Katrina, which earlier in the week had pushed benchmark crude to an all-time high of $68 a barrel. October crude oil fell $1.36 Friday to $66.13. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPENCER JAKAB is a reporter for Dow Jones Newswires in Jersey City, N.J.

To: energyplay who wrote (68200)	8/28/2005 9:41:07 AM
From: shades	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<Besides property, there a many people who won't leave, or will wait until what they think is the last minute to leave, which will have pasted hours ago.> Shades tell you last year he went to norleans to escape florida hurricane, people did not flee, not enough roads to flee for those that did - shades offer to give ride to girl out of the flood and death and she flip shades off - shades hate for anyone to hurt - but honestly shades not gonna miss someone with such selfish attitude she gonna die rather than take ride from cute guy in the face of certain death. <In a way New Orleans is like Atlantis, if Atlantis was built 10 feet below sea level, and protected by levees made of soft mud, and with a huge river running the middle of town.> You must watch different episodes of stargate atlantis than shades - the SHIELD will protect everyone - we power it with lightning! I work with boys in camp in middle florida who send up model rockets to capture lightning - part of the reason shades come to florida - study lightning - we look at this idea - the problem not capturing the lightning for the SHIELD - it where to store it - we figure best way is huge underground spinning gyro - 2 spinning opposite direction mabe counter forces - but then the problem get into how to transfer all the lightning energy into the huge underground gyros and spin them up - so far we figure we need huge carbon nanotube type cables that wont burn up so fast transferring all the energy - so we still a few years off from Stargate Atlantis technology - but it will be here in another decade or so. So after that - how to make shield? Once you capture lightning store all the energy in huge underground gyro - one of the lightning guy here (franklin wannabe) talking about orgone energy and huge ion field generators to dissipate the big hurricane - he even talk NASA into some of this stuff to fund new kind of lightning rod - HAHA! They actually put this on space shuttle take off launcher - HAHA - BWHAHAHA! TOO TOO FUNNY! BWHAHAHAHA! Anyways no empirical evidence come forward on new super duper lightning rod to dissipate storms or lightning or work any better than franklin hundreds year old lightning rods - so silly NASA guys kinda shuffle all that under the rug - HAHAHA! too too funny. groups.yahoo.com Shades wonder why he never see slagle at meetings - he thought slagle into electrical stuff.