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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim_p who wrote (518)	8/29/2005 2:18:32 PM
From: fp_scientist	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50637

Thanks for your post. It perfectly explains today's trading action and perception of events. I'll wait for the damage reports in the next few days to see what reality is. The SPR won't do for gas loss. I think the story this Fall is gas, not oil.

To: jim_p who wrote (518)	8/31/2005 12:09:21 AM
From: James C. Mc Gowan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50637

Oh no, not more predictions. On the other hand, these prognostications are excellent contrary indicators. Refineries up in one or two days, really? Well, they will require electricity, no? Port Fourchon ok? Maybe not, and not for a while, the Port Director seems to think it will be a while, and he doesn't even know the extent of damage to logistical support, yet. LOOP, again they may have weathered much of the storm, but still require power. Do these predictions come off the top of the head, or are they just based on vast experience in the field? Coming from a person with this kind of industry experience, one would think that more variables might be factored into the thought process, when arriving at predictions of timely resumption of production and delivery, and of the decline of NG. I liked this one when NG was priced in the $6 dollar range, not so long ago: To: Frank who wrote (44399) 5/27/2005 8:35:13 AM From: jim_p Read Replies (1) of 47955 Frank, It was not very long ago that the 12/18 month NG strip was over $8.00, then it was over $7.00 and now it's in the $6's. People stayed bullish on energy stocks despite the build in oil and NG inventories because the future prices remained so high. At what price is this no longer a valid argument with NG? The main reason oil prices remained high were due as much to the weak dollar as it was the due to the reduction in excess world capacity of oil. Now the dollar is trending back up and there is growing concern about the Euro due their weak economy and their need to lower interest rates at the same time as our short terms rates are still increasing. There is still an excess inventory of both oil and NG despite all the new homes built over 2000 sq Ft, a strong US economy and the 200,000 MW of new NG generating capacity that you keep talking about. If demand is up and inventories are up how can supply be down??? (US Dollar continued rally and world economic analysis edited, dollar rally over) NG and oil prices have been high enough and long enough to bring on plenty of new supply despite the disbelieve (and lack of Cap-X) by some of the majors of today's high energy prices. I keep hearing the argument that supply is down despite all the record drilling. BTW, back in the late 70's during the last so called energy crisis when the world believed we were running out of energy we had over 5,000 rigs drilling which we are a long way from today. Exxon is now forecasting an increase is supply due to a number of new projects that they have coming on stream in the 2nd and 3rd Q and they were one of the last to respond to the increase in prices?? It looks like the OSX maybe breaking out of its downward channel as of yesterday and if it does it just might retest the old highs?? For your sake I hope it does, but we are late in the cycle and the odds in MHO are not in your favor. Good luck, Jim Yes, Good Luck following these predictions, indeed. Update: NG was at $10.mcf BEFORE Katrina hit. Probably a good idea to brush up on Gulf weather trends, we are 1/2 way through the hurricane season. I suppose Ivan was a one-off, maybe not. Nothing personal, but maybe a career as a newsletter writer is an option. Jim

To: jim_p who wrote (518)	8/31/2005 9:37:04 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50637

"Katrina has caused a Cataclysmic Energy Infrastructure Event". quote/unquote: Louisiania Mid Continent Oil & Gas Association. Obviously... it's going to take time to see what the damage, is, or is not. It is a short-term event...but, if short-term events drive stocks up 10% and futures go parabolic...no reason to stand in front of that Train imo. I think Shorts need to be banking what they've made, step aside... let spec's get parabolic if they wish to...or wait for retracment to resume its downward momentum and re-enter on that momentum. No plaques for Shorts in Martyrdom. There are many OTHER plays with better risk:reward on both the long & the short side off of this "event". Matt Simmons just bought some "time" - nothing more, nothing less... he backed his supply:demand shock thesis into a Q4 corner - and we saw the market sell off stocks heavilly into new record highs for BOTH Crude Oil and Natural Gas...and we saw the US relase the SPR... THAT is something that should not be lost - on either Shorts, or Longs. Some of the Kool-Aid drinkers will use a this "temporary", but obvious significant "event" to fan the flames of Peak Oil... there is not any fundamental supply:demand shock on the Crude Oil horizon that I see and once the speculation is washed out of the aftermath of Katrina and Natural Gas & Gasoline Refining/Infrastructure damage is repaired... there is going to be one helluva lot of money to be made on the short-side. I got a very well timed entry on the Short-Side here.... made a couple of nice quick $4-5-$6 hits and momentum "was" to the downside and heading toward what I see is a when, not if - "technical" inevitability - that the OSX will retest it's prior longterm resistance of the OSX 150 as new interim support. But,...Katrina intervened. This is obviously a temporary intervention from Mother Nature. Let Katrina play out...give the spec's all the rope they need and want.... the short trade will only get more attractive, more profitable and will ultimately have better risk:reward metric's. Gasoline and Natural Gas will get very speculative...and lot's of "air" will be created underneath their price levels. - patience. Slider ...a SPIKE in Gasoline over the Labor Day Weekend will be another catalyst for the major paradigm shift in US Consumer Sentiment that is already occuring... and THAT may be the most profitable "trading" theme out of Hurricaine Katrina.