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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (134970)	8/29/2005 8:40:53 PM
From: mistermj	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793534

If the invasion of Iraq were all about the oil, there is a much softer target just to the north Monday, August 29, 2005 Canadian oil sands, Albertan independence and an investment idea If the invasion of Iraq were all about the oil, there is a much softer target just to the north. Via Chrenkoff: The National Energy Board estimates there are approximately 1.6 trillion barrels of crude bitumen saturating the ground in northern Alberta. Bitumen -- a form of heavy, thick oil laden with sulphur and deficient in hydrogen -- can be refined into synthetic crude oil to make everything from gasoline to plastics. It is the lifeblood of every industrialized economy. According to the Alberta Energy and Utilities Board, about 178 billion barrels of bitumen are economically recoverable using existing technology -- enough to produce more than 150 billion barrels of crude. If these estimates are accurate, Canada's oil reserves rank second behind only Saudi Arabia's 260 billion barrels. And there are many who believe the current oil sands assessments understate the true potential here. The AEUB has projected that rising prices and improved technology could ultimately push the oil sands yield close to 300 billion barrels, which would make it the richest petroleum field in the world. By 2015, the oil sands are expected to be producing roughly three million barrels of petroleum a day. Assuming prices will average US$40 a barrel (well below where they are today), that suggests annual revenues of close to US$43 billion. (bold emphasis added) Of course, huge amounts of oil is going to lead to huge amounts of wealth to fight over. Canada has never been one of the world's most united countries (how many other OECD countries have significant seperatist political parties?), but its divisions have long been more linguistical than economic (although economic differences once were a big factor in Quebecois seperatism). That may change: In August 2001, Jean Chrétien foreshadowed the coming tension over Alberta's blossoming oil wealth during a speech in Edmonton. "We have to make sure that every person in every part of Canada benefits from the potential and the wealth that belongs to the people of Canada," he said. With those words, Chrétien jabbed a stick into the hornet's nest of western alienation. The reaction in the oil patch was swift and indignant. For many Albertans, it was just another sign that Ottawa was intent on stealing their birthright. The article is particularly good on the geopolitical significance of the Albertan oil sands, and is well worth reading in its entirety. Then consider two questions. First, will Albertan seperatism ensure American access to Canadian oil? That is, if Ottawa squeezes Alberta too hard, it may try to secede from Canada. If it does so, the United States will be in a position to guarantee Albertan security, or support Canadian efforts to keep it in the confederation. Ottawa will know that if it wants Washington's support, it will have to guarantee that in a pinch Canadian oil flows south, rather than west to China and India. tigerhawk.blogspot.com [more] The linked articles are a great read as well.