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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: energyplay who wrote (123)	8/30/2005 3:49:59 AM
From: Seeker of Truth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217580

Hi Energyplay, 1. Mining of coal takes lots of energy. Energy price in terms of US dollars will rise over the next 2 years and 5 months. So the cost of mining metallurgical coal will do the same. Selling prices usually reflect costs. 2. The put is in US dollars which will fall in that period relative to gold, the Canadian dollar, or etc. 3. No need to expand production volume, just maintaining that volume is sufficient. Please insert the necessary "probably" and "almost certainly" in the above sentences. But basically this is a bet against the US dollar. When the put expires Bush will still be in power, pursuing the war against --- Iran? Syria? History will unfold as it wants to. Meanwhile suppose that FDG goes down in price from the current 116 to 75. That's break even for the put. Even in that case one is receiving 2005 USD and repaying the same nominal sum in 2008 USD, still a profit. The return would be small but the return on zero investment is --- you know, infinite as a per cent. And by the way I suppose that in 2008 China will be buying more metallurgical coal than now. I think that's a reasonable assumption.