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To: abstract who wrote (62399)9/1/2005 12:21:00 PM
From: Sully-  Respond to of 65232
 
    Are we going to try to look forward, to figure out how to 
save New Orleans and prevent another calamity of this
sort there and elsewhere? Or are we going to begin finger-
pointing, searching for villains among the debris?
    Some of that villain-hunting has already begun....

DELTA DISASTER: HANG TOGETHER

Jogn Podhoretz
NEW YORK Post Opinion
September 1, 2005

FOR the second time in four years, the United States has been changed utterly by a previously unthinkable event. And just as was the case after 9/11, how this nation responds to the deluge that is sweeping New Orleans away will help define the nature of its character for decades.

Just as Rudy Giuliani said that the death toll from 9/11 would be "more than any of us can bear," the same is already true of Katrina. Who can begin to take in the notion that in the United States in the 21st century, a storm could kill in staggering numbers?

At the beginning of the 20th century, something like 8,000 people perished when Galveston, Texas — unprotected from storm swells at the time — was hit by a hurricane. But when Hurricane Andrew leveled the entire town of Homestead, Fla., 13 years ago and became the most financially deadly storm in American history, it took only 15 lives.

Now we're talking about several hundred times that number in the literal swamping of one of the world's great cities.

There can be no doubt that the immediate response will be one of breathtaking generosity — financial, spiritual and personal. That's what we saw in the wake of 9/11, it's what happened after the tsunami in December, and it's what we will begin to see as the next few days pass.

But what we don't yet know is this: Are we going to try to look forward, to figure out how to save New Orleans and prevent another calamity of this sort there and elsewhere? Or are we going to begin finger-pointing, searching for villains among the debris?

Some of that villain-hunting has already begun, in the typically vulgar, unwisely speedy efforts made by overly assured ideologues certain that they can connect a cataclysm to a pet issue — whether it be the American failure to pass the Kyoto global warming treaty or making the claim that spending on the war in Iraq squeezed out the possibility of shoring up the New Orleans levees.

Here we see the stirrings of a spiritual divisiveness taking hold — in the form of a know-nothing populism that sweeps everything in its wake and brings everything into the courtroom.

What happened here was a natural disaster. But there will be the temptation to turn it into a human conspiracy of greed and selfishness on the part of oil companies, concrete companies, politicians, insurers, re-insurers, goonish cops and the like.

If the recriminations become the story of the next months, everybody will simply go to the usual battle stations. The tort reformers will take on the trial lawyers. The global-warming crowd will face off against American business. The politicians will scream at each other, scoff at each other, and try to find some cheap advantage that will turn the tide against one party or the other.

The good that will be done —person by person, donation by donation, community by community — will be in danger of getting swamped by the bitterness and divisiveness that characterizes contemporary elite politics. Rather than finding common ground, there will be ugly partisanship and a cold standoff.

The horror of a flood is literally, very nearly the oldest story in the Book. There have always been times that the water will rise higher than the walls men can build to contain it. The New Orleans system survived the battering of nature for more than 200 years — but it met its match and was overwhelmed by it.

The best we can do is comfort the afflicted, mourn the lost, and try to rebuild. The worst we can do is turn on each other.

So what shall it be?

E-mail: podhoretz@nypost.com

nypost.com



To: abstract who wrote (62399)9/1/2005 3:26:35 PM
From: Sully-  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
Katrina: Cat 5 Hurricane plan for New Orleans was 25 years away

Posted by: McQ
The QandO Blog
Thursday, September 01, 2005

Reader and commenter JWG sends the following link to an article in "Riverside" which is a bi-monthly magazine published by the Corps of Engineers New Orleans District. The publication date of the following article is Sept/Oct, 2004, or about a year ago.

I've put the whole thing up because its short but amazing. And prophetic. But it also points to two things. That there were plans afoot to prepare New Orleans for a Cat 5 hurricane, and, even given those plans, the author wasn't particularly sure it would work.

I've also highlighted some of the things of interest which caught my eye.

<<<

Old plans revived for Category 5 hurricane protection north shore to the Mississippi River
, by Eric Lincoln.

Engineering and Project Management are determining costs for a hurricane protection feasibility study that could lead to a project to protect southeast Louisiana from Category 5 hurricane storm surges.

One of four alternatives to be investigated will include blocking tidal surges at the Rigolets and Chef Menteur Pass. The concept was part of the original Lake Pontchartrain and Vicinity Hurricane Protection project.

In 1977, plans for hurricane protection structures at the Rigolets and Chef Menteur Pass were sunk when environmental groups sued the district.
They believed that the environmental impact statement did not adequately address several potential problems, including impacts on Lake Pontchartrain’s ecosystem and damage to wetlands.

Ultimately, an agreement between the parties resulted
in a consent decree to forego the structures at the Rigolets and Chef Menteur Pass. Instead, a “high-level plan” resulted, amounting to construction of a levee system around St. Bernard, Orleans, East Jefferson and St. Charles parishes.

The new initial feasibility study
will look at protecting the area between the Pearl River and Mississippi River from a Category 5 storm. Subsequent studies will look at the area between the Mississippi River and Morgan City.

Four alternatives that would be studied in the initial feasibility report are:

- Construction of floodgate structures, with environmental modifications, at Rigolets and Chef Pass, along with levees extending from high ground on the north shore to the Mississippi River.

- Raising existing levees for greater protection.

- Construction of a gated structure and new parallel span to the existing I-10 twin spans to Slidell. The additional lanes could be used for evacuations and, during normal days, alternating traffic-flow during the morning and evening to aid Slidell commuters. This structure would include higher levees extending to high ground on the north shore and to the Mississippi River.

- Raising all existing levees except those in the Inner Harbor area. A structure at Seabrook and a navigation gate at the Mississippi River-Gulf Outlet (MRGO) / Gulf Intracoastal Waterway (GIWW) would close off the Inner Harbor area when storms threaten.

The impacts of coastal restoration projects will also be included as part the studies.

“Simply restoring the coastal wetlands and barrier islands will probably not be sufficient to protect the city from a Category 5 event,”
said Al Naomi, senior project manager, “but it could reduce the surge elevations and result in cost savings to the Category 5 project.

“I hope that one of these alternatives will prove feasible and will be constructed.

We would then have the only Category 5 protection system in the country.”
With that system in place, says Naomi, it would make sense to build shelters and other buildings to withstand Category 5 winds. Right now, few if any buildings in the city are capable of surviving a strong storm, and if they did, the water from the storm surge might finish them off.

“The new convention center or Saints stadium could be constructed to these standards, with electrical generators and other emergency equipment built in at a relatively small initial cost. Including the upgraded levees, we’re talking maybe $2 billion for a system that would protect the city.

“Compare that to damages from the storm, which could be as much as $100 billion, and 100,000 lives lost.

“A Category 5 hurricane hitting the city may be a once-in-a-500-year event …A Category 3 like Hurricane Betsy in 1965, or less, is more likely, and the existing levee system should be able to handle a storm like that.

“But there are no guarantees. One failure or overtopping of a levee could be catastrophic.

“The point is to eliminate that storm surge threat with one of these plans. Then we can build stronger buildings and stay in local shelters with the Red Cross, instead of spending eight hours in traffic trying to leave.

“The philosophy of what we do during a hurricane would change. We could spend more time protecting our homes and less time trying to get out of the city in these desperate evacuations.”

The cost estimate for the study will be discussed with the state Department of Transportation and Development (DOTD), the local sponsor, before being submitted to headquarters for funding. Right now, there is no money for the study in FY05, even though it is one of the most vital for a city threatened more every hurricane season by a potential Category 5 storm.

With federal funding, a cost sharing agreement could be arranged with DOTD, and the feasibility study could proceed, taking about five years to complete, with another 10 to 20 years for construction.

>>>

Interesting and telling. They were actually, according to this article, at least 15 to 25 years away from any workable Cat 5 hurricane system. But they were looking at it.
I'm going to stay away from the politics of this but you can draw your own conclusions. I simply thought it was some vital background info that needed to be aired about this particular event.

UPDATE: More interesting info. The article was written in 2002:

<<<

After decades of division over who and what are most responsible for Louisiana's dissolving coastline, state officials, environmentalists, business leaders and scientists have found common ground on what they think it will take to fix the problem.

The often-combative factions are rallying around something called Coast 2050, a $14 billion, 30-year wish list of flood-control, water-diversion and coastal-restoration programs that would be the largest construction project ever undertaken. The plan is aimed at re-creating a historic mix of swamp, marshland and barrier islands by unleashing some of the natural forces that had been bottled up by levees and other flood-control projects in the past century.
>>>

qando.net

mvn.usace.army.mil

nola.com



To: abstract who wrote (62399)9/1/2005 3:48:02 PM
From: Sully-  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
Let’s can the "blame game" and all pull together

Posted by: McQ
The QandO Blog
Thursday, September 01, 2005

All Katrina, all the time ...

That's what appears to be on the news horizon for quite some time. And, for a while, deservedly so. I mean when's the last time a major American city was to be completely and utterly evacuated?

But we're what, 5 days into it and already the carping and political pot-shots are beginning. Is there a utility in doing so that I'm missing? Or should we, as a nation, be pulling together and trying to help those in New Orleans and the surrounding areas survive the ordeal?


We had a commenter here, for instance, ask:

<<<

why did the President not send army trucks or buses to transport the people without cars out of New Orleans before they died? Why not on Saturday, or on Sunday? Why is there still no transport? Why did the most powerful and richest nation in the wolrd not send more than a handful of helicopters to get people off the rooftops and from the attics? what is taking him so long?
>>>

Come on folks ... a little common sense, please. Army trucks aren't magic and they don't float. In case you missed it, New Orleans is flooded. And it takes time to mobilize, position, organize and launch massive SAR operations. They just don't happen at the snap of a finger.

While we all obviously want to see our fellow Americans rescued as quickly as possible let's "do the logistics". This isn't a video game where you punch a button and everything you need is there.

On the political side, we see some on the left loading up big time
(note I said "some" to all those commenters who are going to feel compelled to talk about broad brushes), absolutely hell bent to use this opportunity to again savage their favorite target, George Bush.

Sid Blumenthal (former senior adviser to President Clinton) had to go all the way to the German publication Der Spiegel to condemn the President and the administration ... even before the first funeral is held for the dead of New Orleans. Of course Blumenthal has never been one to consider holding his tongue out of respect for anyone, especially if there's a political hatchet job to be done. He's also not one who's particulary worried about a factually complete presentation when political hay is to be made.

Here's what Blumenthal says:


<<<

A year ago the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers proposed to study how New Orleans could be protected from a catastrophic hurricane, but the Bush administration ordered that the research not be undertaken. After a flood killed six people in 1995, Congress created the Southeast Louisiana Urban Flood Control Project, in which the Corps of Engineers strengthened and renovated levees and pumping stations. In early 2001, the Federal Emergency Management Agency issued a report stating that a hurricane striking New Orleans was one of the three most likely disasters in the U.S., including a terrorist attack on New York City. But by 2003 the federal funding for the flood control project essentially dried up as it was drained into the Iraq war. In 2004, the Bush administration cut funding requested by the New Orleans district of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers for holding back the waters of Lake Pontchartrain by more than 80 percent. Additional cuts at the beginning of this year (for a total reduction in funding of 44.2 percent since 2001) forced the New Orleans district of the Corps to impose a hiring freeze. The Senate had debated adding funds for fixing New Orleans' levees, but it was too late.
>>>

In today's Atlanta Journal Constitution, the following was pointed out:

<<<

"We've been on this trajectory for about 15 years. We're seeing increasingly bigger disasters and increasingly higher losses," said Kathleen Tierney, director of the Natural Hazards Research and Applications Information Center at the University of Colorado.

Disaster and emergency experts have warned for years that governments, especially the federal government, have put so much emphasis on disaster response that they have neglected policies to minimize a disaster's impact in advance.
>>>

Those warnings weren't just delivered on Bush's watch. This problem wasn't just identified in 2001. Fifteen years puts this right in old Sid's lap as well, since he was a part of the former administration. And to the numbers well:


<<<

Louisiana's elected officials were quick to seize on the disaster to press for long-requested federal financial assistance in shoring up Louisiana's coastline. The coastal wetlands erode at a rate of 24 square miles a year and expose south Louisiana to increasing danger.

Until recently, efforts to squeeze coastal protection money out of Washington have met with resistance. The Louisiana congressional delegation urged Congress this year to dedicate a stream of federal money to Louisiana's coast, only to be opposed by the White House. Ultimately a deal was struck to steer $540 million to the state over four years. The total cost of repair work is estimated to be $14 billion.
>>>

"Long requested federal financial assistance?" How long, Sid?

"Until recently"? How recently, Sid?

But here's the point. The project is "estimated" to be 14 billion. 14 billion. With a "B". It was in the beginning stages.

Why?

If this was such an urgent project in the terms Blumenthal couches it, why were the 100 year old pumps and 100 year old levies still a 100 years old when he was where he could help make it the priority he now claims it is?

Why is it we know the estimated cost now, but apparently had no idea when Blumenthal was advising the White House? And if we did, why wasn't anything done?

Blumenthal never mentions the barrier islands which were so badly eroded in 1965 by Hurricane Betsy. New Orleans and the state of Louisiana has been asking for help to reverse that for years. If protecting New Orleans is such a huge failure for this administration now, why, in the 8 years Blumenthal had to make it a priority, wasn't anything done for those islands when he could have advised the Clinton administration to do so?

It's easy to lay back, and in the safety of the foreign press, take political pot shots in the wake of a disaster. But the fact that Blumenthal was a part of an administration which apparently did next to nothing for New Orleans when it could have leaves one less than impressed with his poisonous monday morning quarterbacking at this point. This threat didn't just materialize for New Orleans in the past 5 years. It was there during Blumenthal's 8 years as well.

Has there been a failure to take the threat to New Orelans as seriously as it should have been at a federal level? Obviously, although I'm not sure even a completed project would withstand a Cat 5 hurricane.

What's the utility of taking political pot-shots now? Other than being in extremely bad taste (something Blumenthal's noted for anyway) it has none.

It's time to pull together folks. That doesn't mean you can't criticize the rescue and aid effort, suggest better ways of doing things or, actually pitching in and helping (or donating).

But politics and propaganda just aren't appropriate now.

In an editorial today in the Washington Post they said:
    Congress, when it returns, should rise above the blame 
game and instead probe the state of the nation's
preparation for handling major natural catastrophes,
particularly those that threaten crucial regions of the
country.
Agreed. It appears, on the surface, we weren't prepared for the magnatude of this storm's violent devastation. However, given these are once in 100 to 500 year storms, I'm not sure what precident we had to guide us. Obviously we need to reassess that after we deal with this disaster.

But the "blame game"? Let's can it for now. Believe me, there'll be plenty of time for that later and we'll be right in the middle of it.

qando.net

service.spiegel.de

ajc.com