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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Bob Rudd who wrote (21978)9/1/2005 5:02:14 PM
From: Madharry  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78745
 
that was a terrific call on stv bob.



To: Bob Rudd who wrote (21978)9/14/2005 3:00:45 PM
From: Bob Rudd  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78745
 
Bought DII @ 8.08, a Katrina manufactured-housing derivative play - DII distributes interior furnishings and tenting on RV's. quote.yahoo.com
To get a feel for this read this[WSJ/BARRONS ONLINE SUB RQD]:
SIZING UP SMALL CAPS 3/14/05 Rhonda Brammer online.barrons.com
I love the low cost focus these guys have.
In monitoring my FLE position[DII is a big FLE supplier], I've done national news searches that kick up strong confirmation that FEMA is buying these trailers hand over fist - some examples:
9/13/05 texarkanagazette.com
[EXCERPTS] Bud Scott, operations chief for emergency housing at FEMA's Washington, D.C., office, was in town Monday to discuss the program as RV trailers and mobile homes poured in to LSAAP and RRAD.

"What you're seeing here is a continuing operation to support victims," Scott said about meeting the long-term housing need for Hurricane Katrina evacuees.

Officials expect thousands of mobile homes and RV trailers to come in and out of Lone Star and Red River.

"A total of 25,000 will pass through these two facilities," Scott said.

Eventually, work orders will be sent to facilities like Lone Star and Red River to ship housing units where they are needed.

Scott said there are additional storage and distribution points in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi and Florida.

"We will be shipping and receiving here for quite some time," he said.

Scott said many people will go straight into mobile homes and he believes FEMA could supply as many as a half-million homes, a cost he estimated could perhaps reach a billion dollars.

"It will be measured in the hundreds of millions," Scott said, adding that some mobile homes and RV trailers could remain here for local evacuees who are unable to return to areas such as New Orleans.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
9/13/05 theday.com
[EXCERPTS] The government is beginning what urban planners are calling the single biggest burst of federal housing development in U.S. history. Last year in Florida, the Federal Emergency Management Agency set a record by installing 15,000 homes in the aftermath of four hurricanes there. In the wake of Katrina, they hope to open 30,000 homes every two weeks, reaching 300,000 within months.

At four giant staging areas across the region, FEMA is assembling tens of thousands of mobile homes and trailers. In Baton Rouge alone, at a former Defense Department logistics center, thousands of them are already lined up as far as the eye can see.

So many new homes are needed that small-scale developments of 50 or 100 homes will simply not suffice. FEMA is thinking like the old-time Soviet planners, mapping out new towns that in some cases will have as many as 25,000 mobile homes, spread across hundreds of acres.

More than 25 so-called strike teams are deployed across Louisiana, scouting out possible sites for these new boomtowns, negotiating with local officials and attempting to draft leases or sales agreements for farmland or campsites.

To meet FEMA's needs, factories are churning out the trailers and mobile homes at capacity. The agency is also buying up homes from sales lots and warehouses across the country.
................
FLE went from 10.60 to 15.50 on the Florida Hurricane news last year. FEMA bought a total of 15,000 MH/RV's for that. A tiny fraction of what FEMA is buying for Katrina.
I increased my FLE position 50% today also.



To: Bob Rudd who wrote (21978)11/15/2005 3:11:14 PM
From: Bob Rudd  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78745
 
Sold SGR today @27.18 for 36% gain. This is a difficult to understand company with earnings quality and execution risk, not to mention that overhanging cloud that FEMA might actually renegotiate the no-bid Katrina contracts. Read several research reports including an Underweight from Lehman...no one had above a neutral on it. S&P pegged FV ~23 Sooo I decided not to be a pig about it and bailed.