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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (40624)	9/1/2005 3:08:48 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

Negative savings rate: Congratulations America! Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was a negative $58.8 billion in July, in contrast to a positive $0.9 billion in June. The negative personal saving reflects personal outlays that exceed disposable personal income. Saving from current income may be near zero or negative when outlays are financed by borrowing (including borrowing financed through credit cards or home equity loans), by selling investments or other assets, or by using savings from previous periods. bea.gov NOTE: In 1933 the personal savings rate in the US was -1.5% -- the lowest ever. We are taking a run at the record ...

To: russwinter who wrote (40624)	9/1/2005 3:21:09 PM
From: GST	Respond to of 110194

<big bet on now for a big slide> I think your timing is excellent.

To: russwinter who wrote (40624)	9/1/2005 3:39:45 PM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

We should see huge inflation soon in statistics, I wonder what bond wiz are thinking about. The Fed may pause, but that will send the dollar down and inflation up further.

To: russwinter who wrote (40624)	9/1/2005 3:59:02 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

If jobs number is weak tomorrow, treasury bears will be hurting big time. Mish

To: russwinter who wrote (40624)	9/1/2005 3:59:08 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

Bk Indonesia: China Currency Swap Deal Likely In 2 Weeks September 01, 2005 07:16 ET Bk Indonesia: China Currency Swap Deal Likely In 2 Weeks JAKARTA (Dow Jones)--Indonesia and China will likely reach a final agreement on a $2 billion currency swap agreement in the next two weeks, Bank Indonesia Governor Burhanuddin Abdullah said late Thursday. "We expect that the Chinese government and the Indonesian government can have a final deal (on the $2 billion currency swap arrangement) within two weeks," Burhanuddin told reporters. sg.biz.yahoo.com

To: russwinter who wrote (40624)	9/1/2005 4:05:29 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Are you in poots? If so which ones? Thanks Mish

To: russwinter who wrote (40624)	9/1/2005 4:16:08 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

If one listens to the bond market, recession is now definitely in the cards. The economy was already going into a slow patch by way of the leading indicators. Recessions by their very nature are disinflationary events. The disinflation will not be good for assets given that the Fed doesn't have very much room to maneuvre. Yields fell 550bp or so during the last recession. If the Fed cut to 1% again, we'd only get 250bp of stimulus; decent, but not enough to stop a deleveraging cycle. I suspect we will see a rate hike in September and the Fed will pause. We may not even see one then... I just can't triangulate a scenario where we're not F*cked.

To: russwinter who wrote (40624)	9/1/2005 5:03:40 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

So how many loans in the region are in delinquent right now? How many HOA dues, property tax, insurance, rent etc are all delinquent? All is well except if you are the holder of the junior liens, what do you do? Almost all jr liens have accelerated clauses. Basically, a borrower is in default on the jr lien, even if payments are current, if they are delinquent in paying the senior liens, taxes, insurance, etc etc. Now what happens if the GSEs, FHA, VA or even some big name lenders decide to offer forbearance to hurricane/flood victims? Would the jr lien holders be sitting back and watch their collateral go under water, literally? If not, what can they do, foreclose on a house that is under water? How many loans are we talking about here? How about all the income property loans with no income? Any insurance experts here that can explain how the claim process work for something like this?