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Strategies & Market Trends : Moomin Valley (formerly Troll-free Zone) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: nspolar who wrote (1066)	9/3/2005 1:04:31 PM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2852

Yes that is very similar to my scenario #3, except I would count 5 waves up to the beginning of 2004 rather than a-b-c. I'm not going to be dogmatic about E-Wave scenarios here - a lot of options are possible some I think more likely than others, I will look for turning points based on other TA indicators and if the E-Wave confirms that will be good. Still trying to work out what will happen to the Aussie market in this time frame. Based on correlations between markets which I agree with you is very important and generally ignored by E-Wave practiitioners, I'm having to move towards thinking we are in a bull market still in Aus and the correction from here which is underway is wave 4: stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pb5!b13][vc60][iLa12,26,9!Lh14,3]&pref=G And won't go below 4300. My previous scenario saw the move up from May as a B wave, but the size of correction needed is too big now I think given what is likely to happen in the US markets. In the beginning of 2006 there could be a bigger correction in the Aussie markets once 5 waves up from the May 2005 bottom are complete. I've been too bearish on Aus. I bought some index puts which were a waste of money and I am shorting News Corp periodically which is working out well. Otherwise I am fully invested in Aus but switched a lot of funds to conservative diversified options. At 4300 I will probably switch back to something more aggressive. Aus is unlikely to see any more interest rate increases and though house prices are stagnating now, obviously the economy has been boosted by the resource boom, but the Aussie Dollar hasn't appreciated more in the last year which is good.