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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (40795)	9/3/2005 3:53:48 PM
From: chainik	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

<Lots of new calls being opened iseoptions.com Actually the last ISEE (1.90 or P/C=0.53) is rather bullish. Within the last few weeks, closing ISEE around 2 were good at least for a modest bounce. Hate to sound bullish, but most of the sentiment indicators are pointing to a rally. The last COT report was very strong. Commercials added about 5 B to their long position on major indexes. I like Swenlin forecast <I would not expect the rally to last more than a week or two, just enough to get internals back to the neutral zone. At that point the market may have a problem>

To: ild who wrote (40795)	9/3/2005 8:07:18 PM
From: NOW	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

we shouold see recent highs tested , then reasses

To: ild who wrote (40795)	9/3/2005 8:21:21 PM
From: Square_Dealings	Respond to of 110194

Major opposing forces built up in the markets Commercials have been going long stocks and shorting gold for weeks. Recipe for explosion of some kind imo stockcharts.com[h,a]dacaynay[pc40!b8!f]&pref=G m

To: ild who wrote (40795)	9/4/2005 12:18:00 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Consumer confidence has collapsed, Message 21671507 and bearish sentiment has increased for completely legitimate reasons, yet the Humpty cognoscenti just sit up on their ledges without fear (13 VIX), fully expecting yet another dose of easy money synthetic economics to keep them perched and climbing ever higher.() These COT and other readings seem to suggest another short squeeze spurt could develop. However, this is the kind of situation that could easily take bears out of their positions right on the eve of a crash. Won't be easy to trade, and I really don't expect to be able to time this, nearly impossible. I expect economic news going forward to be awful, poor economic news combined with spiking inflation and Train Wreck/bottleneck reports (see CI 9/1). What could develop is that the ledge climbers try to ramp the economic weakness they love so dearly with futures pumps and short squeezes. I suspect that any rally will have a peculiar look to it, just indexes related goosing, with a poor AD line. Even if the bears are now overly aggressive, the investment community is astonishly complacent. They will get no help from the public, as mutual fund cash is dangerously low, and there are outflows. Message 21668879 I believe Joe Six needs his meager savings and investment to pay his escalating bills and debt servicing. The 9/20 FOMC meeting will be the big event. If the Fed sees the speculators trying to goose all the universal Bubble friendly trades from housing to gold to gasoline to foreign currencies to Russell 2000 into the stratosphere, they may just elect to drop the next hike on the market. You won't want to be offside on "longs" generally if that happens. sabian.org () Alice meets Humpty Dumpty: Don't you think you'd be safer down on the ground?' Alice went on, not with any idea of making another riddle, but simply in her good-natured anxiety for the queer creature. `That wall is so very narrow!' `What tremendously easy riddles you ask!' Humpty Dumpty growled out. `Of course I don't think so! Why, if ever I did fall off -- which there's no chance of -- but if I did --' Here he pursed up his lips, and looked so solemn and grand that Alice could hardly help laughing. `If I did fall,' he went on, `the King has promised me -- ah, you may turn pale, if you like! You didn't think I was going to say that, did you? The King has promised me -- with his very own mouth -- to -- to --' `To send all his horses and all his men,' Alice interrupted, rather unwisely. lestoil.net