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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lazarus_Long who wrote (40934)	9/8/2005 12:09:50 AM
From: Peter Dierks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Crazes and Manias: My father has quite a library of books on the manias of the past. I have ready many of them. Yes I am very familiar with the Tulip Craze. It is definitely time for me to have some in my library for the benefit of my children. My father lived through the Great Depression. As an adolescent and young teen he had to stand in the cheese line because his parents were too proud. I had begun to believe that the 70's were our generation's depression. I have a significant portion of my security investments in non-dollar denominated securities. Last week, my trading portfolio was up significantly due to energy trusts. I continue to look for signs of the RE bubble coming to a head. I recognised the last signs of the stock bubble, but was caught in the mania and thus failed to act appropriately. I still made enough in the nineties that the losses were relatively small compared to the investments. I generally am efficient at taking some winnings off the table as they occur. It limits both up and down side.

To: Lazarus_Long who wrote (40934)	9/8/2005 12:57:11 AM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

"Florida was quickly forgotten as speculation went national in the stock market boom of 1926-1929" This time they reversed things but the timing of the subsequent second top should be happening by now<g>. Still not expecting a 1929 crash again except maybe most frothy RE areas of speculation in some high end new condo and second home markets. Thinking more like a hybrid of 1970's stagflation and early 1990's RTC period. A rather lengthy period lasting perhaps over a decade to resolve the imbalances in places like SoCal.