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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: valueminded who wrote (36744)	9/8/2005 12:37:15 PM
From: Oblomov	Respond to of 116555

>>Where is this touted "deflation" 4 years and running on this thread The thread was started 1-1/2 years ago. No one is claiming that we have not experienced inflation, particularly in commodities. I have profited greatly from the commodity boom. The question is, will the future direction of goods prices be up or down. You are saying that the trend established by recent history will continue. I say that the end of the credit bubble and concomitant shift to nonzero savings will change the economic landscape considerably. But, I have not yet seen the signals that this change has come, and if it does not, it will not adversely affect my portfolio.

To: valueminded who wrote (36744)	9/8/2005 12:38:37 PM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 116555

"That said, I am in a quandary as to how to profit from the existing and upcoming inflationary cycle" Is there a board on SI devoted to that topic? If not we should start one. Flyover country/oil patch RE will do very well as will gold. Many of the short ideas here will do well but with a different trigger than the deflation crowd expected.

To: valueminded who wrote (36744)	9/8/2005 2:04:09 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Guys: Where is this touted "deflation" 4 years and running on this thread: Lets see:..... Any thoughts other then shorting the long bond which my mortgage effectively does . . . . I suggest you short 10-yr treasury futures in size. Then sit back and Relax. Report back in three years. After all, we ALL now completely understand that the last 4 years can safely be projected infinitely forward to the logical conclusion of interest rates at 36% in just a few years. Might I also suggest buying more houses at 0% down. That strategy has worked very well for 4 years. Why can't that last forever? Then again projecting current trends into the future would not have worked very well in 2000 when one might have projected the Naz to go to 20,000 or so. Nonetheless, I am confident that today's trends will prove to be far sticker than previous trends thus any idea of deflation is preposterous simply because of what has transpired in the last 4 years. It's different this time you know. Obviously today's trends are now guaranteed to last forever. That's why the VIX is so low. Speaking of the VIX I suggest shorting VIX futures as well since the last 4 years is proof the VIX is headed to zero. I think one can look at any trend now and safely project it will last forever. Yes indeed. Buy houses and short treasuries and short VIX futures in size. Mish