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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (41122)	9/8/2005 12:29:56 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

Date: Thu Sep 08 2005 12:14 trotsky (of course) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved with me being a fan of DROOY ( the only one left, although i seem to have picked up some not un-illustrious company lately ) who thinks the stock's potentially headed much higher, you have to take all my comments with a big grain of salt. : ) Date: Thu Sep 08 2005 12:10 trotsky (frustrated@Kupol) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved it has very high silver grades, and the silver by-product credits are one of the reasons production costs will be so low. if you actually calculate the dollar values of the gold and silver contained per the drill results, what you get is still a gold mine - with downright amazing grades, especially considering that its a near-surface deposit. also, regarding the risk factors, if Bayerische Hypo and Societe Generale believe it's safe to throw $280 million at it, one can probably rest reasonably assured that they're not a major issue. i've also seen criticism of Johnson centering on his propensity to raise equity right after releasing a set of stunning drill results, but in reality that only proves his good management sense. if you have to do financings, why on earth wouldn't you do them at the most opportune moments, while there's a reason for the stock price to be firm? regarding GG, one must concede that Telfer has proven the skeptics wrong time and again , judging from the stock price performance and the stellar earnings results, but like RIP i have a nagging feeling that Alumbrera looks almost too good to be true , and even if those doubts are misplaced, the fact remains that copper now plays a too significant role for the company for my taste. of course copper has actually outperformed gold for a while now, but if one is in the secular gold bull camp one has good reason to be wary of too much copper exposure imo. Date: Thu Sep 08 2005 11:31 trotsky (@homebuilder stocks) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved the whacking of the sector resumes after below expectations guidance by HOV. also, the major driver of the housing bubble, FNM, sees its stock drifting to fresh multi-year lows as we speak. it appears that the bursting of the housing bubble happens in stages, similar to the demise of the tech bubble ( e.g., WCOM's stock price peaked almost two years before the stocks of its major suppliers, the telco equipment companies, peaked. many of them ended up falling well over 90% from their highs, e.g. JDSU, NT, LU, etc.etc. ) . as soon as the government's housing statistics ( which for a variety of reasons mostly tend to be lagging indicators ) begin to show weakness , the Fed's rate hike campaign will be well and truly over. Steve Saville opines that the market may be mistaken in assuming that the hurricane alone will be reason enough to stop the hikes - he thinks there first have to be signs of one or more major markets crying 'uncle' , both housing and stocks being major candidates. the fact that the stock market is rising already in anticipation of the rate hikes ending may actually delay the end of the campaign. not sure if this view pans out, but it's certainly worth considering.