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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (319)	9/9/2005 4:30:55 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217764

Big rockets and nukes - What MOST countries want is an effective deterrent for local/regional threats that won't bust their budget, won't take 15-20 years, and doesn't get them on the threat list of the major powers like Russia, China, US and possibly the EU/NATO in some form. One easy way to avoid getting in the sights of a major power is to have limited range for the rockets, so most or all the major powers' territory is out of range. I think this is the case with India, where most of the rockets that are availible in any number can easily hit Pakistan, but not far into the populated areas of China. They have some bigger rockets, but few of these. I'm sure Poland, Sweden and Norway feel Russia is still a threat, but I don't see them creating their own rocket forces. Note that the exceptions to this, North Korea and Iran are subject to considerable pressure and attention. On the nuke side, most countries need reliable, low risk designs which will work without extensive testing. They generally don't need multple weapons types for various vehicles and missions. So I expect most countires to have SCUD based designs and their follow ons, and one of maybe 3 types of nuke devices - Uranium based gun designs - reliable, long storage life, rugged relatively light weight - a good choice for small to medium rockets with modrate payloads. Spherical plutonium implosion by explosives Two stage desings, using radiation driven implosions, and usually boosted by generation of additonal neutrons. I expect most of these will use fissionable blankets and other tricks to boost yield, except where weight may be an issue. Note that none are mostly Thermonuclear or H-Bombs, but the 2-stage come close. ******************** Weapons yield will likely range from around 5 Kt to 80 Kt, with the high end being the heavier boosted 2 stage devices. A 25 Kt device, likely to be a gun type, can destroy a compact small city like San Francisco. For a big spread out place like Los Angeles, there can be damage, but they'll still be a city left. ******************* So I don't see most of the new nuclear countries presenting mortal threart to the major powers, especially since the major power have big, spread out cities. I expect the major powers have ways of making it clear that contunued arms build up which might become a threat to a specific power might result in unpleasant consequences. Thus, I think we get a two-tier nuclear world, where the minor nuclear powers have a degree of deterrence, but limited deterrence which would fail should a major power decide the price could be paid. I think that states which try to build a stronger deterrent or counterforce would experience considerable pressure, extensive sabotage of their weapons programs, and likely preemptive attacks on weapons facilities. So I don't see India doing a massive offensive weapons build up. Iran is going to be a problem for the EU. I have no idea what will happen with North Korea.