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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (41257)	9/10/2005 1:26:37 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Date: Fri Sep 09 2005 14:29 trotsky (crude oil , gas and distillates) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved it sure is beginning to look like the hurricane has created an intermediate term top in the energy complex. note that prior to the hurricane, net speculative long positions had already become very extended, especially in gasoline futures ( a ratio of 10:1 of longs vs. shorts ) . likewise, put/call open interest ratios in XOI options and options of XOI component stocks have lately been in freefall ( the XLE OI ratio remains very high, but is at its lowest level in about two years nevertheless ) . it looks like the current rally is inter alia driven by delta hedging. the hurricane has created a temporary supply shock, and there's always a danger of another supply shock developing ( e.g. a terrorist attack on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia comes to mind ) . at the same time however, the hurricane will crimp demand. it's too early to say how this will shake out bottom-line-wise, but the fact remains that all the energy complex futures are now well below their previous panic buying highs.