Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (36960)	9/12/2005 4:51:11 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Ford selling Hertz

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (36960)	9/12/2005 4:55:06 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Heinz on oil vs treasuries from an email US bond prices tend to lag oil by about 4 months. so if the Katrina spike was an intermediate term top in oil, the next intermediate term bond top is about 4 months away from there (provided the relationship continues to hold).

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (36960)	9/12/2005 11:50:23 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Grain report Hi, this is Tim Hannagan, and it is Monday, September 12th and the markets are closed- C o r n: Our weekly export inspection report came out showing 15.4 m.b. of corn was inspected for near term export, unchanged from the week prior but well under a year ago of 25 m.b. Demand still remains weak as ports of New Orleans have yet to begin loading ships. Our USDA crop report out ahead of the open came in as bit of a surprise. They estimated production at 10.639 b.b. down 1.168 b.b. from last year due to drought. We came in 338 m.b. over the average pre-report trade guess and 289 m.b. over the August report. This was the real surprise as traders had figured we would come in slightly under. Once again, it is clear that due to the wide variance in weather conditions, it will take to October and or November reports to realize the true crop yields as we will be into the fileds with harvest versus these road side estimates. Trades are scratching their heads wondering how the USDA came in higher than August when the governments own weekly crop condition reports added up to a decline in quality for August. I look for a slow beginning to harvest this year as farmers let corn sit in the fields and dry to save drying costs at the elevators and take advantage of continued warmer and drier than normal midwest weather. Also, Gulf Port shipping problems due to Katrina leaves bins full from last year’s crop leaving farmers more time to move old crop to make room for new crop. Carry over stocks or ending inventory come the start of this harvest and next year’s harvest read like this: 2004-2005 carryover was put at 2.125 b.b. and our 2005-6 carry next fall at 2.079 b.b. this carry for next year remains the third highest since 1987. World corn carryover was put at 111 m.m.t. versus 127 last year. Ok, what does it all mean? Well, a lot for today as traders positioned themselves for one number and got another. Come Tuesday, they will say what report, as the numerical changes were small. Whether we came in 40 m.b. under or 289 m.b. over the average estimate the reality is- it is a small change when you butt it up to comparison of the projected 10.639 billion bushel crop. I noted on my Friday report to expect new lows this week after the report with short covering by month’s end. We got new lows today under our December 2.15 initial support with a December low of 2.064. We have a gap on the charts between today’s high of 2.116 and Friday’s low of 2.16. It is more probable than not that today’s low could be a exhaustion low. We look poised to fill the chart gap to 2.16 on a technical view point. B e a n: We started with our weekly export inspection report showing 3.9 m.b. of beans were inspected for near term export, up slightly from 2.7 the week prior but under a year ago of 10 m.b. due to shipping delays out of New Orleans. Ships look to begin loading by mid-week. The USDA crop report pegged production at 2.856 b.b. down from 3.141 b.b. last year but 45 m.b over the average pre-report trade guess and 65 m.b. over the August report. This gave us a 10 cent lower opening. On Friday’s report I noted I hoped for a report in line with expectations and a neutral opening to sell short and look for new lows but the sharp open lower foiled our play. They put carry over stocks for this harvest at 295 m.b. and next year’s ending stocks at 205 m.b. up 25 m.b. from the August report and the fourth highest since 1986. World carry over was put at 44 m.m.t. under this year’s 2005 carry. While the corn chart looks more supportive the bean chart still looks threatening. First, support for November is 5.78 then all the way to 5.50 if 7.78 does not hold this week. Resistance is 6.10 with minor resistance at 6.88., though we look for month end short covering in a big way. It is still early in the month and funds are in control and yet may test new lows one more time, be cautious. I have a minor sell point at 5.92. We need a close over 6.02 to suggest today’s low was an exhaustion move and we need it by Friday. W h e a t: the weekly export inspection report showed 12.7 m.b. were inspected for near term export off from 20.2 the week prior and 19 a year ago. Year to date inspections are 249 m.b. versus 309 a year ago. Not a good demand signal but the whole Katrina thing has really slowed importer’s business. The USDA crop report was void of wheat production updates as they came out month’s end but carry over was released at 624 m.b. from our 2005-06 crop year down 10 m.b. from the August report and 6 under the average guess. World carryover was put at 137 m.m.t. versus 148 last year and 3 m.m.t. under the August report. So, supplies are lower but were in a a demand driven market and price determines that. Our 3.20 major support held with our close of 3.264 today. We nned a close over 3.30 to turn bullish on the charts. A close under 3.20 and next support is 3.12 then 2.95 longer term. I continue to hold a December 3.30 call and 3.10 put and a wait a trending break out move to begin. End-