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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ecrire who wrote (609)	9/13/2005 9:05:36 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 50601

re: [ " Every (Gold) guru and newsletter falling over themselves with bullish predictions."] You are 110% correct. Goldbug sentiment is extremely bullish and they just ran up the goldstocks on a bet that the Fed is done raising rates and that the US Dollar would tank. What we just saw was a massive broad market money shift off of Hurricaine Katrina - betting that the Fed would pause here, if not end the rate hikes. Imho, when we see these massive money shifts - it is a good time to step aside and let the dust settle and see what opportunities the "reshuffling" of the market deck has given us. Prior to Katrina... Interest Rate Sensitive Sectors like the Homebuilders, Lenders & SubPrimes were tanking and we were seeing significant profit taking in Oilpatch stocks - even into new highs for the underlying commodities... The Goldbugs made a big bet here (massive open Long Spec Positions in Gold) that the Fed would pause, if not even cease raising rates (given the disaster of Hurricaine Katrina) with the end of rate hikes being US Dollar Negative - as would be the massive additions to the US Deficit - with projections for the Katrina Bailout being as high as $100 Billion. ... I understand the Market Shift we just saw. It was a "trade" based upon where they thought the US Dollar would move. BUT ! - the US Dollar did not react the way they anticipated. Thus... Ka-Chingo $$$. I disagree that the Fed is done. I think the Fed will raise rates - at least 2 more times @ .25 bp. The Bond market is pricing in an 84% chance of that happening. Trading is all about risk:reward and odds. When the Bond Market prices in an 84% chance of continued Fed Hikes... and Goldstocks bet against the Bond Market - that is a bet that nearly always must be taken... especially if you have significant profits hanging out in the wind. I'm still offloading what I bought on the end of April/early May HUI meltdown... My perspective in cashing in 50-55 HUI Index Points may be different from someone who has traded in & out; or who just entered, or re-entered here of late. TECHNICALLY - this is NOT a Chart that would tend to have me breaking out the Cristal & Confetti: stockcharts.com[d,a]daclynay[d20040913,20050913][pb50!b200!d20,2!f][iut!uj[$gold]!lb14!lp14,3,3!ll14!lk14][J58824301,Y]&listNum=2 FUNDAMENTALLY one must always ask - are the "goldstocks" cheap relative to Gold ? Here's the answer: stockcharts.com[d,a]daclynay[pf][iut][j56407865,y]&listNum=2 And in the Gold Sector... you must always anticipate "when" the SMACKDOWN attempt from both the Commercial Short's and the Central Bankers is going to come... "when" - not "if". Central Bankers just recently met... Katrina rattled the markets... There is a huge Long Position amongst the Spec's in Gold... If you were either a Commercial Spec that was Short, or a Central Banker that wanted to silence the proverbial "Canary in the Coal Mine" Message to the Market that Gold transmits... WHEN & WHERE would you begin the SMACKDOWN ? stockcharts.com[d,a]daclynay[d20041201,20050913][pf][iut][J58830407,Y]&listNum=2 stockcharts.com[d,a]daclynay[d20041008,20050913][pf][iut][j58827877,y]&listNum=2 Obviously Gold and Goldstocks moved upon the Disaster from Hurricaine Katrina potentially adding $100 Billion to the already huge US Deficits AND the bet that the Fed would also be done raising rates and that the US Dollar would thus tank...but ! - the obit for the USD is far from being written. Here is a very simplistic chart on the US Dollar that even the "pretendabulls" on NR should be able to understand - vis a vis where to buy, hold, sell, or even load thy boat on Gold/Goldstocks relative the US Dollar ;) stockcharts.com[d,a]daclynay[d20040913,20050913][pi!f][iut!lb14!lp14,3,3!ll14][J58829039,Y]&listNum=2 Tomorrow, if time permits... an interesting study in sentiment & reality and how the best trade in the market is always on the traders vs. the stocks... Later, Slider`