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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (41486)	9/13/2005 9:26:32 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Respond to of 110194

>>Its amazing that the chief economist for US Bank is now predicting a recession is "imminent "<< Why amazing? I totally agree with him.....

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (41486)	9/14/2005 12:51:55 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

I see a huge series of IFs. The only saving grace is the admission that it might take only 1 to cause it. Those last 2 sentences however are something. If the Chinese economy crashes, if Asian central governments stop buying U.S. government securities and interest rates move up 150-200 basis points, if there is an outbreak of trade protectionism in the U.S. that spreads around the globe, if the housing bubble bursts, if U.S. debt and deficits – consumer, government and/or current account – become unmanageable, if oil prices continue to rise – any combination of these and perhaps no more than a single one makes a recession inevitable. In terms of a mild recession, it is only a question of when it occurs, in 2006 or a year or so later. At some point U.S. consumers must bring their debt under control and housing prices must reflect demand for living space rather than Ponzischeme speculation. At worst, the eerie parallels with 1929 turn out to be predictive and we face a long period of difficult economic times. coloradoeconomy.com BTW - US bank is located in Minneapolis What's with the facination of Denver? Mish