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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: John Vosilla who wrote (37092)9/14/2005 9:16:23 AM
From: valueminded  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
There comes a time when the truth gets told. It can only be masked for so long. My guess is that at some point

1. The "basket of goods" used to calculate CPI gets examined and found to be out of whack. Good project for the AARP since there benefits are directly related to the government calculation of CPI
2. Consumers tell the government to quit removing food and energy. It is part of the core for 100% of Americans.
3. Foreign governments get tired of propping up the value of the dollar.

When these come to pass, bonds will fall sharply (imo) As to timing, I cant answer that. I view bond prices as similar to stock market prices in the runup before the crunch. Predicting timing is impossible for me at least. Stocks then and bonds now (imo) ran way past expectations and my attempts to make money by shorting were not extremely succesful.