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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Earlie who wrote (37208)	9/14/2005 11:50:16 PM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

im no bull but your thesis is way off base 1)insiders have been selling heavily through the bull market since 02 2)forward pe of 16 historicaly is about even 3)money printing and a weak dollar is good for stock prices in short term as there is money chasing to few investements. 4)federal debt as % of GDP is arround 3-4% not near the highs we reached in the 80's(agree that consumer debt is nuts though) 5)us corporate balance sheets have historicaly high levels of cash. I could go on...I am bullish st, and have been for a bit. The problem with your thesis is that everyone knows about these issues, and they are harped upon everyday. They are priced into the market. What isnt priced in is the huge demand for goods and services coming out of china and india as well as the reemergence of Japan and hopefully Europe. The USA is a mess, there is no doubt but the rest of the world is looking very healthy. Buying when everyone knows all the negative stuff allready always pays off. In time these things will come home to roost but not until people talk about how its different this time. the thing to worry about, that is not accounted for is inflation is rampent and nobody seems to notice, and statistics are not demonstrating it. However ST inflation is good for stocks too. Be patiant Earlie....early next year.