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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (42639)	9/16/2005 11:18:06 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 68494

Crude slips on forecasts of slowing global demand; Venezuela predicts US$100-a-barrel oil 9/16/05 5:04:00 AM BUDAPEST, Hungary (AP) - Crude oil prices slipped Friday after OPEC lowered its demand forecast on signs that high prices were taking a toll on consumer demand. Yet South America's biggest producer, Venezuela, warned that oil prices could reach US$100 a barrel because of the world's limited reserves. "There is a great deal of uncertainty in this market, but interestingly enough in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina demand pressure seems to have been taken off crude oil," said Julian Lee, energy analyst at the London-based Center for Global Energy Studies. Although crude prices are not expected to collapse, upward pressure is easing, Lee added. October crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 65 cents to US$64.10 a barrel in European electronic trading. Heating oil and gasoline slumped more than 3 cents each to US$1.8810 and US$1.8650 a gallon (3.8 liters). October Brent crude futures on London's International Petroleum Exchange fell 65 cents to US$63.01 a barrel. "Some market players forecast (the) price of Nymex crude will continue sliding on signs of declining petroleum demand due to high prices," said Tokyo-based trader Ken Hasegawa of Himawari CX. Others, however, were buying on expectations that crude prices would rise as demand for heating oil increases ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter, he said. "The real concern is over products and I expect prices for gasoline, heating oil and jet fuel to remain fairly robust," Lee said. In its latest projection, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said world oil-demand growth would fall by between 150,000 to 200,000 barrels a day for the remainder of 2005 and into 2006 as high prices force consumers to reduce purchases of petroleum products. The 11-member cartel, which pumps a third of the world's daily diet of 84 million barrels of crude, meets Monday to decide on future output. Although crude oil prices are well down from the intraday record of US$70.85 set Aug. 30, prices remain nearly 50 per cent higher compared to this time last year. Venezuela - an OPEC member and the world's fifth-largest oil exporter - said prices could rise to US$100 per barrel because members of the cartel are pumping at near capacity. "OPEC is practically already at its production ceiling," Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said Thursday at a U.N. summit in New York. "The problem is the oil reserves are running out," said Chavez, whose comments were carried by Venezuelan state television. "It is a true crisis." Lee said Chavez's forecast wasn't receiving much credit in the market. "The US$100 barrel price is very much wishful thinking on Venezuela's part," Lee said. "Venezuela does not produce enough to meet its own quotas, so the only upside for the country is high prices," he added. Rising demand, primarily from the United States and China, has been blamed for the tight supplies worldwide.