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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Rocky9 who wrote (8844)9/15/2005 12:12:34 PM
From: Biomaven  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10280
 
Plus I think that there may need to be additional stocking, not use of current stocking.

We might be able to work this out. They ended last quarter with 9.5 weeks of inventory, and expected a reduction to four to six weeks by year end. The key question is what "9.5 weeks of inventory" actually met - was it the run-rate at the end of the period, or the average for the quarter? If it was end-of-period run rate (which would make most sense), then that meant about 700k scripts worth, or 7 weeks at the current run-rate of 100k/week. That would mean likely inventory stays about flat figuring that run-rate is increasing and they were talking about end-of-year not end of Q3 for the 4-6 weeks level.

Comments?

Peter



To: Rocky9 who wrote (8844)10/12/2005 2:30:55 PM
From: Rocky9  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10280
 
Monthly scripts:

March 749
April 101,879
May 235,770
June 299,985
July 323,274
August 397,895
September 452,549

Quarter at 1,173,718

Still not sure that there is a better number or not.

Use of, or add to, inventory is also a big issue.

But, it sure looks like $80MM should be the bottom number.