To: elmatador who wrote (571 ) 9/18/2005 11:34:08 AM From: BubbaFred Respond to of 218110 Lucky educated guess. A few times, I thought crude oil would go through the roof, i.e. break the 100 barrier. Luckily the oil conglomerates kept rational and know the breaking point of US economy and consumer spending. Fortunately too, the price control in China has caused China's refineries to sell petrol (gasoline and diesel) overseas rather than selling them domestically. More profit by selling to other countries. Fuel for vehicles has been in short supply in southern China for several months. If it were not for those fortunate events, crude oil could have been in the 90's and US economy would now be at severe stagflation or worse. We only hear people whining on price of gasoline at gas pump stations, but they are still fueling their vehicles instead of alternative transportation such as bus. Utility bills will go up by 40 to 45% this winter. Public transportation fares will likewise go up. What and when will that breaking point?, the one that will make American consumers go into a trench with their spending? Buy new cars to be parked in the garage, and keep cars for 6 to 8 years rather than 2 to 4 years. I think we are seeing the impact on the auto industry already. It almost seem like American consumers are spending like they are expecting the pesosization of the dollar, and that the dollar and loans will eventually become lower in value. It's like why save for tomorrow when the future value of savings will not buy what it buys today. In real estate, that is the mentality for buying today. And there is no massive firesale by the sellers because they have been accustomed to seeing real estate prices continue to go up or remain steady. Not until there is a true excess supply of houses, i.e. more deaths than people coming to workforce. Besides, the cost for new construction keeps going up. So the likelihood of firesale in housing market is very small. The 40-year loan has become popular in the hot real estate markets. Soon, it will be 50- and maybe 100-year loans. Why not? It makes sense for both the buyers and the loan institutions. Price of houses should follow the cost of new construction which in turn follows price of the raw materials, equipment, and fuel, even if the labor cost remains the same. And there is hardly any tax incentive for alternate energy such as solar panels for homes and office buildings. US energy conglomerates still rules mightily. And American public is still aloof, lost, and stupid by holding the current administration in high esteem despite getting bushwacked silly. Ahh!, such is the fate of destiny as it unfolds and marches to the eventual. This administration wants to control the supply and pricing of energy, and it will fail badly, and the consequence for such narrow minded greedy self interest, it will be disastrous. We'll feel it in 2020, and definitely live it by 2050.