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Biotech / Medical : SARS and Avian Flu -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry Niman who wrote (2284)	9/18/2005 3:02:17 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 4232

Henry, since humans catch the virus from birds, it seems obvious to me that human to human transmission must be at least as easy as bird to human. Since people don't go around kissing birds, though I've read of sucking muck out of cock fighting birds to enable them to breathe, but they do go around kissing family members, it should be easier to catch the existing non-humanized H5N1 from another human than it is to catch it from a bird. So we should see what we see, which is limited propagation in humans among close people who kiss or spray particles from sneezes or coughs straight into the face of those close to them. We don't seem to be getting chains of infection which catch other people in the general vicinity as happens with normal human influenza. H5N1 is still struggling to get from one person to another. Here comes the northern winter, so we'll know in a few weeks whether we dodge the bullet for one more year. <Human-to-human transmission was clear in the initial family cluster, which involved 3 members of a family of a government auditor (38M). His eight year old daughter was the index case, showing symptom on June 24. The time gap between her symptoms and her 1 year old sister who developed symptoms on June 29 is a strong signal of human-to-human transmission. Such a 5-10 day gap has been present in almost all familial clusters in Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia. WHO however, has refused to acknowledge the virtual certainty of human-to-human transmission in all or most of those cases, which account for more than one third of confirmed cases. Instead WHO maintains that the vast majority of cases come from poultry, thereby contributing to more human-to-human transmission within families, which is clearly happening in Tangerang.> The 5 to 10 day gap suggests to me that the propagation is problematic. Normal flu seems to take only about 2 days from my exposure to symptoms. Kiss today, sniffles starting the next day, or at most the day after that. Definitely not 5 or 10 days. Mqurice PS: Thanks for continuing to be the canary in the coal mine. Please ignore people like Pope and Boxbytheriver.