Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chaka who wrote (677)	9/20/2005 12:25:07 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 50606

Chaka - re: What "I" Think - will Launch Gold & Goldstocks: re: the when, not if - move to HUI 350 What I think will eventually launch Gold and Goldstocks to significantly New and Higher highs ($550+ Gold and HUI 350ish) is when the Fed once again begins to cut interest rates and is forced to re-stimulate the US Economy BY CRANKING UP THE PRINTING PRESSES ! These significantly higher Gasoline Prices and coming Winter Heating Bills, the now negative US Savings Rate, falling Consumer Confidence, the rollover of the Housing Bubble are all indicative of what I believe is now the final chapter of the US Consumer Debt & Credit Bubble unfolding in the US. I believe that the Fed will be forced to restimulate the US Economy by mid/late-2006. When the Fed once again begins to crank up the Printing Presses and cuts Interest Rates - is what will crater the US Dollar to new lows - and THAT is what will launch Gold and Goldstocks to significant New Highs. I don't think Katrina's $100, or $200 Billion Dollar ReBuilding Package is going to be the straw that breaks the Camel & the US Dollars back, nor stop the Fed from raising rates. Greenspan has the ultimate peek behind the Curtain and he knows he MUST give the next Fed Govenor - room to work with... and I think there are 2 more Fed Hikes in the cards. I may be wrong... but, if I am - I've got +40 HUI points levered 3 x to "call options" in the bank and another chunk banked at +50 and a bit more at 65-70 HUI Points - all BANKED. Once again... it sure beats the hell out of riding that 2 Year HUI Chart - now doesn't it ? ...hell, why bother. No one - will ever change Human Nature, Popular Delusion, the Madness of Crowds; or the very predictable and tradeable Human Reactions based upon Greed & Fear. Greed is prevailing here... as was Fear back in April and May. Both were easy trades... and regardless of what I, or anyone says.... that will never change. No one will change Human Emotion, or how people are wired. Only 5% of people will ever be able to tune out, or over-ride those psycho-emotional drivers of Human Behavior. ...but, I digress (at least relative to Permabullian speak). Chaka, while the move of Gold in Foreign Currency's is positive... the "Players" that will be needed to break Gold free of the Shackles of Central Bank Intervention - will be the Major International Currency Players and they will arrive en masse Long Gold - ONLY simultaneous to a massive US Dollar Short Play. ...the US Dollar chart is clearly showing us that - THAT IS NOT PRESENTLY OCCURING. It WILL show us - when it happens. When the Fed once again cranks up the Printing Presses and cuts Interest Rates... THAT - is the move that Goldbugs will want to hold on tight for... and that is certainly not today's environment. Patience & Prudence will best serve Goldbugs and in the interim... banking these 40, 50, 60, 70 point moves EVERY SINGLE TIME THEY OCCUR - AND ALWAYS WHEN HOT MONEY ARRIVES LATE TO A STORY... pays dividends. I can't count the times that the Riders of the HUI Rollercoaster of Death, Destruction & Broken Dreams have told me - "you sold too soon" Probably, about 400 points worth so far... PUT IT IN THE DAMN BANK and quit riding the Goldbug Rollercoaster Ride of DEATH - ie this : stockcharts.com[l,a]daclynay[de][pf][iut]&pref=G Risk relative Reward has completely reversed here... either you are "wired" to profit it from it, or you are destined to repeat the Rollercoaster of Death, Destruction and Broken Dreams... Or, maybe you'll get Lucky and be saved by an Act of God... Neither Luck, nor Acts of God are in my personal Trading Playbook...doesn't mean that Goldbugs can't get lucky here...but, what I am focused on is the When, not If - Cranking Up of the Printing Presses and yet another sequence of Interest Rate Cuts.... THAT is the Move that we "all" are waiting for... - not this one. Good Luck, Slider