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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (37621)	9/20/2005 2:25:33 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Respond to of 116555

I don't think Texas Genco even knows a hurricane could be on the way. When somebody told them to hire rocket scientists, they hired a rack of sinuses by mistake. <G>

To: ild who wrote (37621)	9/20/2005 3:56:33 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

C O R N- Monday’s weekly export inspection report came in showing 31.6 millions bushels of corn was inspected for near term export. This was up from 16 the week prior and 26 a year ago. Year to date inspections since the new marketing year began September 1st are 48.6 m.b. versus 63.4 a year ago. It is a nice little recovery on the week but near term comparison arise from very low hurricane Katrina export problems. Demand remains a non-driving force. Monday’s crop condition report showed 52% of our crop in good to excellent condition, up 1% from the week prior and 18% under last year’s record crop. 57% of the crop was fully mature versus 40% a year ago with 11% harvested up from 9% last year and equal our five year average. There is nothing in these numbers to say buy or sell but the trade will be eager to see yield results as we get further along especially in Illinois, Missouri and Indiana our drought states. Monday and Tuesday have produced two sided choppy trade as fresh new fundamentals are now influencing opinions and that is what is tropical storm Rita going to do. If it turn into a major hurricane late week in the gulf and once again threaten export shipping ports around New Orleans it will be bearish pushing corn down into Friday as export demand again will be on hold. If it fails then a chance for month end short covering by funds fat with short profits could pull us back to 2.16 basis December by the end of next week. Support on December lies at 1.98 with resistance at 2.16. B E A N- Monday’s first report was our weekly export inspection report showing 4.3 m.b .inspected for near term export off from 4.8 the week prior but over a year ago of 2.6. Year todate inspections are 9.5 versus 15 m.b. a year ago. Like corn, the bean numbers are skewed by the effects of Katrina on the export market. Demand remains a non-driving source. Monday’s crop condition report showed 53% of the crop in G-E condition down 1% from the week prior and 11% under last year’s record crop. 64% are dropping their leaves, with harvest at 8% equal a year ago. Like corn, this report suggest nothing to the trader as they await more harvesting to unveil true yields. Monday’s four cent higher close came on news that soy oil used for bio-diesel production could be over 900 million pounds this year with a 75% increase in 2006. This had soy oil prices up 80 points but today saw four cent losses at mid-session as the threat of lost export business due to tropical storm, soon to be hurricane Rita heading to the gulf. Wxrisk.com sees it crossing over Florida into Wednesday. What it does in the gulf is key. Will it be a category 1 or the rare category 4 or 5? Then will it crash into New Orleans area again where up to 60% of our corn and beans are shipped out of or will it move west toward Mexico or Texas? If it hits New Orleans then expect lower bean prices into late week but any lower price move should be looked at to be bought as next week will leave very little time for funs to take month end profits from shorts. November has support at 5.60 with resistance at 5.88. W H E A T- Monday’s weekly export inspection report showed 26.9 m.b. were inspected for near term export up from 16.2 the week prior and 24 a year ago. Year todate inspections are 280 m.b. versus 333 a year ago. Not bad but not good either. It is a neutral demand indicator. We need 35 to 42 m.b. inspected weekly to be price friendly. Monday’s crop progress report put planting of our winter wheat crop at 25% planted versus 12% a year ago and 22% on the five year average. Key states to follow on early emergence weather are Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado, Nebraska and Kansas. We will grow into November then go dormant until March. Monday saw lower prices while Tuesday was mixed. The trade has fear that tropical storm Rita when it enters the gulf this week, could turn into a major hurricane. The current tracking has it hitting the Texas coast line. Wheat’s concern is that 80% of our wheat is exported out of Texas ports. The next 48 hours will tell the story as to whether wheat’s poised for another leg down with potential for December wheat to push as low as 3.10 or will disaster be avoided leaving next week with only 5 days before month end and last chance for funds to take month end profits. Traders are short over 80 thousand contracts. We need a close over resistance of 3.29 to turn bullish on charts. Any sharp drop due to rita should be bought for a late month end recovery. In the mean time exclusive of what Rita does the market remains supply, demand side bearish. Harvest is in, demand is soft leaving Rita and month end book evening as our wild cards.