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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (42001)	9/21/2005 6:21:05 PM
From: TimbaBear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Our current "shortage" is caused by not having enough upgraded refineries to handle the changing mix of crude oil, just like the 1976-1982 period. I think I'd challenge part of that assertion. While I'll agree that refining capacity could be improved, I don't think it is the sole (or even primary, most times) driver behind higher prices. The rate of discovery of new reserves has lagged the production from all reserves for 20 years now. Those who argue for and against peak oil seem to have somewhat different definitions of what "oil" they're talking about. I consider the oil shales and tar sands to be among the reserves of the alternative fuels, not really to be counted in with the much easier and cheaper to produce flowing oil from wells. The oil flowing from wells is what I refer to when thinking about and discussing peak oil. That oil has seen marked declines in Prudhoe Bay, marked declines in the North Sea (to the point where the UK is a net importer of oil now), and the Saudis keep their data to themselves. For me and my investing outlook, building more refineries won't bring more oil out of the well. I believe we have reached a peak in reservoir discovery, and a peak in production while we still haven't seen the peak in demand. Timba