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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (42013)	9/21/2005 6:35:10 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Date: Wed Sep 21 2005 15:59 trotsky (Dabchick@HMY p/c) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved yes, strictly speaking it's a negative, but this has to be put into context - the context is 1. the trend having turned from down to up ( it is better to see skepticism in the face of an uptrend, but a low ratio is more of a negative when the trend is actually down rather than up ) , and 2. the index options. at the moment, the picture from the XAU index options is improving, although it is not yet unequivocal. should we see a further rise of index put OI vs. call OI, then the low OI ratios on individual issues can actually be expected to lead to the 'afterburner effect', as calls that have been shorted without cover will lead to delta-hedging when strike prices are getting blown away. that said, a very low ratio on an individual issue is a good reason to keep close trailing stops. imo HMY breaking the $9 level created a technical target in the $12-13 range, so it is probably too early to get nervous about the deterioration in the options backdrop. however, i'd still advocate close stops, not too close to avoid whipsaws, but close enough to protect the bulk of the profits. Date: Wed Sep 21 2005 15:25 trotsky (@real estate and housing stocks) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved one of the stocks i highlighted yesterday as having entered a clear downtrend, the large real estate holding and developer JOE, continues its freefall today. it has smashed through another support level without the slightest hesitation, but is now beginning to look short term oversold. possibly there will be a bounce back from here to the upper end of the down channel, which would represent a good shorting opportunity. homebuilder stocks bounced briefly today, but have since weakened and turned back down. many of the charts look shot, although their long term uptrends have in most cases not been violated just yet. anyway, all of this continues to look like bad news for the housing boom. Date: Wed Sep 21 2005 14:53 trotsky (frustrated@interest rates) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved yesterday, upon the Fed raising the FF rate by another 1/4 point and keeping its statement hawkish, the 3 month t-bill rate suffered one of its biggest one day declines in over a year. in short, the market is telling the Fed, 'you're wrong bozos...you're going to be cutting soon enough'. in terms of who do we believe, i'll opt for the market's judgment any day. Date: Wed Sep 21 2005 14:20 trotsky (@OZN) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved OZN is as of now at a new all time high. the major technical implication of a new all time high is that there is no technical resistance left to overcome. Date: Wed Sep 21 2005 14:16 trotsky (@CESI) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved this is one of Big Bob's picks which i've had on a watch list for some time. a company in the business of catalytic converters, only not for cars but power plants, which have to fulfill ever more stringent emissions regulations. to cut a long story short, at it's current price, the stock trades below the value of its cash per share. iow, you get the entire business, the patents, etc. for free at this price. of course, the company burns cash, as it has yet to turn a profit - it's still a developmental stage business, so this cash per share figure is bound to deteriorate. nevertheless, this looks like a good moment to grab it for cheap. unfortunately it's a low float stock, which means that it's quite illiquid most of the time. a disadvantage when trying to buy cheaply during periods when not much is happening, but a distinct advantage once it begins to run. DYODD, this is merely a heads-up.