Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (171078)	9/21/2005 5:40:38 PM
From: Keith Feral	Respond to of 281500

There would be alot of commotion indeed, if the bird flu hits the fan. Just look at the reaction at the death toll in New Orleans. Hope it doesn't reach the epic proportions being projected. I just don't see it having any impact on the demand for oil. Oil is the main reason for the increase in US rates and the falling of the US dollar. Exports are creating such a massive trade deficit that Greenspan is having to raise rates faster than he would like in order to maintain adequate parity against other currencies. Higher US rates make the US dollar more attractive to foreign investors. I don't see this trend coming to a stop for the indefinite future. As a matter of fact, I might begin looking for alternatives to my Q bond portfolio for income. Investing in other currencies would or foreign bonds will be a waste of time since no one is getting around the supply imbalance any time soon. However, there are plenty of yield instruments in the way of oil trusts that may look compelling for the next 5 years.

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (171078)	9/21/2005 6:43:19 PM
From: bentway	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

"I'd sell oil now." You'd lose big time. Oil will likely pass $100/bbl after THIS hurricane, which is driving right through the gulf platforms left from Katrina. Then, it will trash the Houston refineries. There's still a month left in hurricane season.. "Before Katrina, the system was already so tight that the worst-case scenario was for a disruption that took 250,000 barrels of capacity out of the picture. That would have been considered a major jolt," said Tippee. "We're already in uncharted territory now. We can't project what happens from another shot the size of Katrina or worse." Part of the problem is that skilled crews needed to make refinery repairs are already busy trying to fix the Katrina damage. That would extend recovery time from Rita. "[Rita] could have a significant impact on supply and prices -- this really is a national disaster," Valero Energy (Research) CEO Bill Greehey in an interview with Reuters Tuesday evening. "