To: Road Walker who wrote (252375 ) 9/22/2005 12:00:15 PM From: tejek Respond to of 1576835 If this can get down to CAT 3 and land south of Galveston,it will be bad but not catastrophic. "Rita will generally track to the west over the very warm waters of the central Gulf as an upper-level high pressure ridge over Texas expands eastward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Thursday. Then we expect the high to either split or move eastward causing Rita to move west-northwest early Friday, then more northwestward Friday night and Saturday. We are estimating landfall between Galveston and Port O'connor sometime between 6 p.m. Friday and 6 a.m. Saturday. Ocean water analysis shows some cooler water in place about 300 miles off the Texas coast, then warmer water again right near the Texas coast in our primary projected landfall area, so the intensity forecast at landfall will be a real challenge. After Rita makes landfall, it will head northwest between Austin and Houston then track between Dallas and Tyler Sunday. We expect hurricane force winds to spread over a large area of eastern Texas after landfall. In fact, high-rise buildings in the Houston area could experience wind gusts to over 100 mph. This could cause some windows to shatter. In addition to possible damaging hurricane-force winds, tornadoes might be spawned by the cyclonic rotation from Rita mainly east and northeast of the center of circulation. Storm surge of as high as 20-25 feet is possible along the coast near and to the right of landfall. As of 11:00 a.m. EDT Thursday, Tropical Storm Philippe is moving to the north at 17 mph. The tropical storm was centered near 26.2 north and 57.1 west or about 695 miles northeast of the Leeward Islands. Philippe has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 millibars or 29.68 inches. Elsewhere in the Atlantic: A tropical low near 52 west, south of 20 north was moving westward at 10-15 knots. Showers and thunderstorms are accompanying this wave, and development is not expected for at least the next two days. A tropical wave was along 36 west, south of 20 north, moving west at 10-15 knots. Nearby, African dust is limiting convection with this system, so no development is expected in the near future. "hurricane.accuweather.com headlines.accuweather.com