Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tejek who wrote (252474)	9/22/2005 8:35:05 PM
From: Road Walker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1571678

SEPT 22, 2005 / 4:33 PM CDT RITA STABILIZES AS VERY DANGEROUS CAT 4 HURRICANE STORM MOVING NORTHWESTWARD -- LANDFALL THREAT PORT ARTHUR AT GREATEST RISK OF LANDFALL IN 44 HOURS SEVERE FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH MONDAY The eye wall replacement cycle that began this morning is nearing completion, as evidenced by the improved satellite imagery signature and the latest RECON reports. The central pressure that had risen to 915mb this morning, is now falling off gradually to 913mb, while the thermal eye wall temp differential that had risen to 4°C this AM, has risen to 7°C as of 2:50PM CDT. MAX sustained winds were earlier reported at 122Kts (130mph sustained surface) which is a CAT 4 intensity -- but in the past hour, have increased to 133Kts in the NW quadrant. It is safe to assume winds are currently around 140Kts in the NE quadrant, or 145mph near the surface -- a very strong CAT 4 intensity. The height of the 700mb surface has fallen 10 meters in the last few hours, to 2329 meters. The storm is now located near 25.8N/89.5W or 390NM SE of Port Arthur. The storm is now moving NW (305°) at 9Kts based on the last 3 hours of fixes. The crew continues to report a double eyewall with a diameter of 18NM and 48NM -- but the thermal and pressure trends, along with the improved colder CDO signature -- tend to indicate the eye wall recycling is either completed, or has simply stabilized for now. The latest 18Z models, including the late , full cycle 12Z run and GFS Ensemble forecast, are in extreme agreement with a landfall very near Port Arthur around 1PM CDT on Saturday. The GFS and NOGAPS are to the right of this landfall envelope, showing the storm crossing the coast right along the LA/TX state line. The models are also in agreement that the storm has peaked in intensity, and will gradually weaken on it's way to the coast -- making landfall as a very strong CAT 3 or low end CAT 4. Intensity forecasts are extremely unreliable in general -- as evidenced by the extraordinary deepening of the storm yesterday. That said -- I believe we will see RITA regain CAT 5 intensity tonight, and then begin a slow weakening during the final 24 hours before landfall -- which will come as a CAT 4. However, because of RITA's extreme pressure and prolonged period over the Gulf as a CAT 5 storm, the storm surge will be equal to that of CAT 5 hurricane. A tidal surge of 20-22 feet, with Port Arthur most vulnerable to catastrophic storm surge damage -- will likely cover a 20-30 mile stretch of coast from the point of landfall eastward, with 13-18 ft extending to 50-80 miles east of the point of landfall. Gale force winds extend out for over 200 miles from the center -- and gusts to gale force will reach over to the New Orleans area. A tidal storm surge of 4-8 feet will hit the Mississippi Delta region over to Grand Isle, LA. Of growing concern post landfall is the path of the storm after it makes landfall Saturday. All the global models are forecasting Rita to slow down and become quasi stationary by late Saturday night somewhere along the TX/LA border about 100-150 miles inland. This occurs in response to the rebuilding of a ridge to the north of the storm over the central U.S.. The ridge then continues to expand towards the east and southeast, and is expected to turn Rita towards the southwest later Sunday and into Monday. In the process, and although the winds will calm down -- the storm will likely bring over 48 hours of torrential rainfall to much of Louisiana on southwestward towards the Houston area - after the storm comes inland. This greatly raises the chances of severe flash flooding over inland areas on Sunday and Monday -- with rainfall totals easily exceeding 25" in some locations - with 30" or more quite possible in some isolated locations. A Storm Surge and Wind Forecast forecast Graphic will be sent out, along with a brief update on the storm itself around 8PM CDT. A full forecast package will be sent around 11:30 tonight after all the 00Z global model arrives. Steve Gregory WeatherInsite wunderground.com

To: tejek who wrote (252474)	9/22/2005 9:02:31 PM
From: combjelly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1571678

"Why are people not leaving? A death wish?" Some people just refuse to evacuate. Others want to protect their property from looters. Others have no means, although they did bring in buses to help evacuate. 85% is pretty good. It wouldn't have been that high if it hadn't of been for Katrina. So that leaves maybe 9000 people. Because of the Seawall, the main risk is flooding. Many of the older houses have second floors, they should be safe. There is also the teaching hospital, UTMB, where people could stay in safety. And there are buildings off the Strand which are tall enough. Of course, the ones that stay on the West End are suicidal fools... Why only contraflow I45? Because it is the only interstate that leads to decent sized population centers that can take a lot of people. There is only so much that a town like China or Newton or any number of tiny towns can take. East Texas is full of little farming communities with a few hundred or few thousand people. And they are spread out, there are long stretches of just trees and nothing else. But going out I45 takes you to Conroe and Huntsville in fairly short order. At either of those, some can swing over and pick up Hwy 6 that takes them to Bryan-College Station and Austin. I10 would take them to San Antonio, but then there isn't much else until they get to El Paso and that is 15 hours away. Heading south is nothing but state highways, and two lane roads aren't going to take much traffic, contraflow or not. And again, there isn't anything until they get to Corpus.