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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: benwood who wrote (42149)	9/22/2005 9:07:27 PM
From: Elroy Jetson	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 110194

The key to surviving H5N1 virus at home is taking Tamiflu and or Relenza very early in the infection process. When a virus infects a cell, it takes over the cell to make more virus. This usually takes 24 to 48 hours for the process to complete. In this cycle, the cell is destroyed and one virus becomes hundreds or hundreds of thousands. If the virus has infected and killed too many of your cells before your immune system has a chance to build a defense, you are dead. This is why a vaccine works. It teaches your immune system to recognize and kill the virus before it replicates. Viruses which have a high mortality rate either replicate very quickly or interfere with your immune system. H5N1 replicates quickly. Both Tamiflu and Relenza inhalers blocks an enzyme (neuraminidase) the H5N1 infected cell needs to bud new viruses. Using these drugs essentially stop the virus cold. It provides the same immeadiate blocking response you would have achieved with your immune system had you been vaccinated. The key factor is to take the drug before the virus has destroyed too many cells. This chemical cease-fire gives your immune system the time to recognize the virus, build defenses against it and wipe out the remaining infected cells. Two things concern me: The length of time required to obtain a prescription and get the drug at a pharmacy -- relative to the 48 hour window you have to save your life. Even in the most optimal situation, this means you need the drug at home. Most people will not go to the hospital until they are coughing up blood, and at that point they have a slim chance of surviving even with the right drugs and intensive care. Second, the Bush administration did not order Tamiflu until last Thursday and they will not receive even these 3 million units until June of 2007. Tony Faucci, head of the NIAID (National Institute for Allergies and Infectious Disease) had been urging them to stockpile this earlier, but they didn't listen until hurricane Katrina brought their egos into check. Roche says it requires 12 months to manufacture this complex molecule and there is no way to speed this up. As a result, your pharmacy may not have either drug when you need them. Australia and Great Britain have enough Tamiflu to treat 40% of their population. The little Johnny Screw-ups in the Bush administration currently have enough Tamiflu to treat 1/10 of 1% of the population and by June 2007 will have enough to treat only 1% of the U.S. population. Very ugly if we have a pandemic. I think the possible pandemic is still two years away. But since I don't live in Australia full-time, it made sense for me to obtain Tamiflu or Relenza now while I still can. .