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Politics : Rat's Nest - Chronicles of Collapse -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (2173)	9/23/2005 9:12:30 AM
From: Wharf Rat	Respond to of 24210

Lots of info here; go to the source... Rita a 145 MPH Cat 4 (as of 0000z)...Lots of Oil Infrastructure in trouble... Posted by Prof. Goose in Site news Fri Sep 23 at 1:51 AM EST We cover all things petroleum and peak oil here at TOD. There are important posts below this, including an important one by HO and Stuart's post on climate change and the intensity of hurricanes...and I encourage you to read both of these very important and timely pieces...right after HO's piece below, there's the CONSTANTLY UPDATED Rita resources page, which has all sorts of new maps, weather models, and especially the KAC/UCF damage predictions that were so correct last time (so many rigs on the E side of this storm, where the wind/surge will be incredible...and the refineries with a direct hit possible on Beaumont...). Other pieces are interspersed between all that and some very extensive petroleum/hurricane coverage, which covers about the next ten or so posts. Enjoy. And to all of you folks new to TOD, welcome. Pull up a chair and get ready to learn... Comments (3) \| Permalink The solutions to the problem are not always simple Posted by Heading Out in Supply/Production Fri Sep 23 at 1:48 AM EST There is a rather odd side to human nature. Take a problem, present it to the audience in its maximum horror and suggest it is about to happen, then ameliorate it a little, and tell everyone how the world is not nearly as bad as it is painted. And everyone agrees that things are looking up. But you are still facing a very bad situation - only the way the news has been presented makes it seem that there is no longer a problem. Consider that, just yesterday, Texas was facing the third worst storm in known history and things looked very dire. The storm has now got just a bit less intense and folk are already talking about Houston having "missed the bullet." All of a sudden a Category 4 hurricane becomes news enough to ease oil prices. We have seen this over the past year with oil prices themselves. Prices rise from $30 to $40 to $50 and then they fall back $3 and we discuss the "collapse of the price of oil." It rises to $60 and then $70 and then slips $4 and suddenly "the crisis is over." There's more... (506 words) \| Comments (14) \| Permalink The worst spots in TX/LA for Rita to hit? Resource Page--UPDATED for new forecast tracks (0000z) Posted by Prof. Goose in Supply/Production Fri Sep 23 at 1:48 AM EST Where is the worst place for Rita to hit for the oil and ng industry? I emailed our industry insider that question, here's her response: The worst tracks are those which put landfall between Freeport and Sabine Pass Texas. There are 3 tracks that cross just offshore of the TX/LA border. Those 3 tracks all let the storm hit more rigs and platforms than the tracks that have landfall farther south. The big concentrations of platforms are in the West Cameron, High Island, Galveston, and Matagorda Island offshore areas. Mustang Island and North/South Padre Island offshore areas are less crowded with production. If you want to know what these areas look like and where they are geographically, try the MMS website. They instituted the block layout, naming and leasing stuff. Landfall just east of Houston's center will be right up refinery alley. Another bad spot is right up through Port Arthur and Beaumont - another big refining center. Not trying to slam anyone, but the best place in terms of damage [to the oil industry] would be between Corpus Christi and Brownsville - lots of low areas and farmland/ranches would flood, but minimal infrastructure damage. Next best is between Houston and Corpus Christi - again, fairly vacant of major infrastructure. Most of our big plants are in the stretch of coastline between Freeport and Sabine Pass. We're all just watching and hoping it stays poorly organized and just hits as a Cat 2 or 3... WEATHER MODELS Here's the latest computer models for Rita...all sorts of uncertainty in the models now. If some of those come to pass (like the one hitting in Galveston and going down the IC) it would be disastrous. (this should dynamically update throughout the day. And here's the latest of the 'big five' models, also turning a bit to the right of the last track And here's the latest 3-day track. It truly all depends when she decides to turn north (or what she does after landfall)...and remember, Katrina surprised on that front last time. Rita wind forecast: 145 MPH for a while...but many are saying she will restrengthen this evening over warmer water after the eye has reformed. MAPS And here's the probably the best MMS map I could find. Very detailed and lots of interesting stuff. (big .pdf warning) Awesome interactive map of rigs and hurricane path from Rigzone. Highly recommended. Here's another good resource for infrastructure maps and such. (scroll down a bit) Here's a map from CNN with large and small refineries laid out. (though it is an old storm track) Here's a list of refining capacity and percentages of overall capacity by area inside the region. (thanks Jaymax) Here's a listing of all oil related industry (refining, etc) in Texas. Update [2005-9-23 0:33:24 by Prof. Goose]:Very detailed piece by RIGZONE on rigs and other infrastructure in the area. (thanks mw) Update [2005-9-23 2:39:56 by Prof. Goose]:Here's a beautiful flash graphic of the oil refineries and rig maps, emphasizing Beaumont and Galveston's importance. Note the many rigs on the east side of the storm that will get the brunt of the damage from the NE quad of the storm...hence the high long-term GOMEX oil production damage estimates below. And here's a mapblast of Houston. DAMAGE MODELS/PREDICTIONS And here's the latest KAC/UCF GOMEX model predictions for "shut in" (i. e., damaged) oil and natural gas production. Predictions are worse with the strengthening at 0000z A lot of refinery damage forecast with the latest data. (this too is dynamic though, so it will update if there is a course change, but "double digit damage at an industrial site is BAD NEWS") And then there's the REALLY experimental toxic substances/other chemicals damage data. Scary. MISCELLANEOUS And here's some information about offshore oil rig evacuations. The latest forecast discussion for Rita I HATE portents. An article from the Houston Chronicle from Feb discussing the "worst case scenario." Technorati Tags: peak oil, oil, Rita, Hurricane Rita, gas prices theoildrum.com