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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim McMannis who wrote (42229)	9/24/2005 10:08:02 PM
From: benwood	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Chances are that with supplies of Tamiflu so incredibly small compared to possible cases that if human-human bird flu reaches the US or Canada, all packs of Tamiflu will be gone in a couple days. Those who acquire will stand a decent chance of never becoming infected while those who become infected will stand a < 0.25% chance of getting pills. My wife said her entire chain of stores (60) has 1000 packs in the warehouse, presumably with some in stores, too. One pack is enough for 1 person for the 5-day treatment, so they have enough for 1000 treatments assuming nobody takes them "just in case." Their customer base serves perhaps 100,000 customers, maybe closer to 200,000. Not good odds if something nasty spreads. Maybe if there's a big outbreak, it would be time to book an extended vacation in Australia...