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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (42316)	9/26/2005 11:54:10 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Date: Mon Sep 26 2005 11:22 trotsky (Earl Grey@'certificates of confiscation') ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved let's not get ahead of ourselves here. the bond market continues to look quite bullish, both chart-wise and in terms of quantitative data. everybody, their auntie and their dog, remain mega-short the bond market. in Rydex, the short fund position on bonds has shot back up to represent over 20 TIMES the money invested in the long bond fund. in the futures markets, small speculators continue to hold vast near-record net short positions across the maturity spectrum. the tell-tale bond ETF TLT sports a put/call open interest ratio of 4.49 ( 449 puts open for every 100 calls ) and a short interest ratio of nearly 11, with a large part of its available float sold short. meanwhile, European benchmark bonds, which tend to lead the US bond market, have just recently hit fresh all time lows in yields. in conclusion, we STILL have a market close to multi-decade highs beset by rarely seen bearish unanimity among traders. it would be a first in the history of markets if the majority of traders successfully called a top by heavily shorting a market so close to its highs.