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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (42397)	9/27/2005 12:36:32 PM
From: TH	Respond to of 110194

ild, LOL. There is NO help for you. I feel your pain, but I learned my lesson last January. I like gold. GT TH

To: ild who wrote (42397)	9/27/2005 12:46:14 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I don't see a place to cure my disease -- "compulsive put buying" lol

To: ild who wrote (42397)	9/27/2005 1:21:19 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

Date: Tue Sep 27 2005 13:04 trotsky (Apollo@BGO) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved i would not certainly say that your reservations should be dismissed out of hand, but this type of political risk is inherent in almost all gold mines. most are located in parts of the world that have at the very least a colorful past, to put it mildly. this type of risk is simply part of the business . as we have seen, you're not even safe if you your future mine is located in Montana ( CAU ) . in fact, imo Kupol has a far better chance to come to fruition than CAU's Montana mine. regarding Russia and oil, while i agree that oil could come down a lot if there's a global economic downturn, it will probably still remain quite high compared to historic prices - i.e. an eventual correction low should be far higher than previous correction lows. the $40 level has probably become the new long term support level, since it used to be resistance for 25 years. so i'm not quite sure if i agree with the idea that Russia is going to experience much oil-related pain. imo the best way to deal with the political risk inherent in ALL gold related investment is to be diversified in the sector. and while no-one can be 100% certain of the future, i certainly don't share your pessimism on Kupol. you make strong pronouncements on something that's inherently unknowable, but i note that lenders would not be likely to be induced to cough up over $400 million if they didn't think the project had merit. Date: Tue Sep 27 2005 12:34 trotsky (@new home sales) ID#248269: down 10% in August? oops. Date: Tue Sep 27 2005 11:42 trotsky (@PM stocks) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved good news, believe it or not. 1. we continue to have strongly positive money flows, even on down days. 2. the XAU index put/call open interest ratio has experienced a sharp jump upward in recent trading days, and is back at 0.82 now. still not overwhelming, but a vast improvement compared to only last week's data. 3. the overall size of the OI in XAU options is up sharply as well - a sign that new money has been moving into the sector, and likely continues to do so. Date: Tue Sep 27 2005 11:37 trotsky (nabob@BGO) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved yes, many disappointments, but in this case Bema can't be blamed. the market didn't assign a lot of value to Cerro anyway imo - the bulk of BGO's value is in the Kupol project, and that mine IS definitely getting developed. Date: Tue Sep 27 2005 11:28 trotsky (frustrated@PDG) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved you're right, they have their hands full with lots of things. i forgot to mention the Cortez discoveries - those also demand attention and money. PDG simply has too many things on its plate ( it also abandoned LC in the end, and not because it's not doable ) . in any case, they should get the boot now. Date: Tue Sep 27 2005 11:24 trotsky (Kodie@Reagan) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved i don't know if what you say is true, but if it is, it would reveal Reagan's hitherto unknown statist core. according to his own words, his political philosophy was certainly diametrically opposed to FDR's. today's statist neo-conservative slimeballs are of course all aglow with admiration for the old war-monger and internment camp builder FDR and his commie schemes. they also aver that they used to believe in Reagan - but the fact remains that Reagan's stated beliefs have always been those of a true conservative ( even if in practical terms, he failed to live up to the promise in many respects ) , which have nothing to do with the Jacobin/socialist permanent revolution ideas and the desire for a overweening government that informs the so-called neo-'conservatives' ( it would be more fitting to call them neo-trotskyists ) , and likewise informed FDR. Date: Tue Sep 27 2005 11:16 trotsky (Hambone@doubt) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved why would you doubt it? there aren't all that many elephant deposits of this sort out there. if the deposit were truly considered inferior by PDG ( the feasibility study which is based on very conservative metals prices shows that this is a fairly typical g/c porphyry in terms of IRR, grades, accessibility and so on. what distinguishes it from others is mainly its size ) , it could have simply abandoned its stake. imo the only reason Cerro didn't get the nod is the fact that PDG's OTHER major g/c porphyry isn't subject to a JV, and they probably feel they can't afford to develop both, since Donlin Creek's waiting in the wings as well ( another huge capital commitment awaits there ) . Date: Tue Sep 27 2005 11:09 trotsky (@PM stocks) ID#248269: from today's vantage point, yesterday's bounce is beginning to look like a bull trap. Date: Tue Sep 27 2005 11:04 trotsky (silverfox, 7:50) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved the evidence that FDR had foreknowledge of Pearl Harbor is in fact overwhelming. most historians would probably privately admit that they regard it as a historic fact by now ( several do so publicly as far as i'm aware ) - the only problem is that insisting on this is not deemed to be politically correct. just as it's not deemed polite to bring up the fact that FDR's administration was riddled with commmie spies and that he himself was Stalin's biggest fan. although not the entire blame can be laid at his feet, it was no coincidence that half of Europe ended up under a communist dictatorship for nearly half a century. Date: Tue Sep 27 2005 10:56 trotsky (Hambone@Cerro) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved other majors have reportedly already expressed interest. this is what makes this so vexing. finding another JV partner is easy - getting Placer to abandon its claim is the problem. Date: Tue Sep 27 2005 10:55 trotsky (OT, chess) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved attn. chess fans: i highly recommend looking at the games played by Israeli grandmaster Emil Sutovski over the past year or so...several highly inventive and entertaining ones among them. i'll post the most impressive one a/h ( it sports a succession of daring sacrifices in the best Michael Tal tradition ) . Date: Tue Sep 27 2005 10:40 trotsky (@Cerro) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved the way i see it, Placer is trying to do a Las Cristinas on Cerro. they don't have enough money or risk taking moxy to take on two or three major projects at once ( Pueblo Viejo, Cerro and NG's Donlin Creek ) , so among the 2 gold - copper porphyries they've chosen the one where they have complete control and possibly a somewhat better margin of safety. so far so good. however, they're trying to sneakily preserve their stake in Cerro anyway, which is exactly how they treated Las Cristinas way back when. in other words, Placer is now actively blocking development of the mine, which is why BGO is getting sold down - they now have to enter into an arduous legal battle to reclaim Placer's stake. apparently OTHER majors would like to have a shot at developing the mine ( not surprisingly ) . anyway, it goes to show that as a junior mining co., you better beware before slapping ink and your cross on an agreement with Placer. you might end up as collateral damage.