To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (718 ) 9/30/2005 2:14:58 AM From: James C. Mc Gowan Respond to of 50119 Hey Slide, what's this 'when, not if' on NG? When? How about after a Winter, that a number of reputable forecasters have identified, will have significant mid-Winter cold spells. Now, I'll gladly go along with a short play on NG should the Admin. seriously consider price controls, once consumers get their first major 'sticker shock' heating bills come Dec/Jan06, and the pressure comes to bear on Congressional leaders who want to get re-elected come next November. But then, what are the odds of OilMen in power doing a price control measure on their major constituency? But on the fundamentals, we have a serious shortage here, with Gulf production off big-time, and, BTW, the damage to NG production with Rita is massive, my friend, as each day's media leakage from GOM producers tells more of the real story. We are now going through the 'don't scare the consumer' slow-walk media phase, post-Rita, don't you think? Also, when did you last hear a dyed-in-the-wool Energy cheerleader like the current prez come out publicly for energy conservation? 'Drive a little less, turn down your thermostats', and we are still in Indian Summer. Next thing you know, he'll be borrowing Jimmy Carter's old cardigan, and sitting by the fireside, doing a slow burn, LOL. I can tell which way the wind is blowing, and the politicians are as good an indicator as insects and squirrels, LOL. I posted here that one might consider going long non-GOM NA NG producers a few weeks ago. I have done well, and expect volatility in this trade, only because more MF mgrs and others with big wallets will want into this trade for unprecedented NG producer profits, over the next few months; I can be nimble if need be, but the S/D equation rules. I like your contrarian approach to analysis of markets and sectors. You are doing very well with your short homies trade, and you have Greenspan's continued rate increases(which I believe are to help out the loser that takes his job, you know, a few more bullets added now, left to fire into the coming recession) at your back. Balloon time for the homies; S/D is a different read on NG this Winter, I'm betting. After early next week, I'll look for new, big stupid money going into non-GOM NG producers. It ain't over till it's over, right? Good luck with your trades. James