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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (704752)9/29/2005 8:45:01 AM
From: Hope Praytochange  Respond to of 769670
 
teddybear and lesbianhillary ???



To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (704752)9/29/2005 8:45:49 AM
From: Hope Praytochange  Respond to of 769670
 
kennyboy: drum up this subject
Predicting Rita
By David Talbot September 28, 2005




The director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's forecasting lab says the federal government is still relying partly on computer models designed for much larger weather systems to predict what hurricanes will do.

Alexander E. ("Sandy") MacDonald, Director of NOAA's Forecast Systems Laboratory in Boulder, CO, says a more precise model is in the works that would allow for sharper predictions.

But getting it ready for deployment will require more computation and research dollars. "We have a ways to go," he tells Technology Review's Chief Correspondent, David Talbot, who interviewed him this week.

TR: The Katrina forecast was extremely accurate, but Rita wound up farther north than initially predicted. This meant the evacuation of Houston was perhaps not as necessary as the evacuation of New Orleans. Weren't the same computer models used for both forecasts?

AM: Forecasters use as many as ten different models -- that's called a model ensemble -- to try to determine what the hurricane track and intensity are going to be. It's sort of like you call ten stockbrokers and say "What's the best stock?" You use all of that information to come up with the best forecast. Hurricane Katrina was a very accurate forecast, partly because the models were very accurate. For Hurricane Rita, the models were quite widely varied in their predictions, so that was a harder forecast. This showed us that we still have improvements to make to the models.

TR: What accounts for the fact that the models agreed with each other with Katrina more than for Rita?

AM: The differing levels of atmospheric stability. A hurricane can become trapped between two high pressure systems, which creates a stable "chute." An unstable situation is that there's no "chute" -- there's just kind of an open area without high pressure systems, and the hurricane can go any which direction it wants. Katrina was more trapped -- it had to go the direction it was going. Rita depended on pretty small differences in the pressure around it as to which way it would go.

TR: Improving models starts with collecting more hurricane data. How can this be improved?

AM: Right now we get measurements of a hurricane every six hours with a manned plane that carries "dropsondes" -- similar to weather balloons, except they measure winds, temperature, and pressure as they fall from the plane to the surface. But you could actually have an unmanned aircraft system, a UAS, ride along above the eye of the hurricane, at 65,000 feet, and it could release a dropsonde every hour, providing almost continuous measurements in the center of the storm. That is something that we can't do now. The UAS could have instruments, either microwave or radar, that could tell us continuously the surface winds based on the waves and other ocean signatures. That is an example of something that would be possible.

UASs are one tool, but there are a number of others: more buoys with weather and ocean sensors on the water's surface, more manned aircraft, better usage of satellites. We could also use Doppler radar on the manned airplanes to measure the hurricane eyewall wind structure, which can be inserted into the model to improve prediction.

TR: You mention the dynamics of the eye and the eyewall. How well are these dynamics understood?

AM: Hurricanes can change pretty rapidly, turn in a different direction, or go from a Category 4 to a 1. Hurricanes will go through eyewall cycles. As the new eyewalls grow and take the place of old eyewalls, we see these kinds of intensity changes. The eyewall is where you get 150-200 mph winds. Someone described Hurricane Andrew as a 30-mile wide tornado. So we want our models to incorporate eyewall dynamics correctly. We don't understand everything that causes eyewall cycles; if we are going to predict those, we want to be able to see short-term changes. If we want to learn what's causing them, we have to take more measurements. We have quite a ways to go. There are lots of things we can do to improve accuracy -- like better models not only of where the hurricane is going, but of where the storm surge is going to hit.

TR: More data and higher resolution means more computing horsepower, right?

AM: Until the last few years, weather prediction models were built for geographically large storms, like the standard low pressure systems we see on the weather maps. They did not resolve the most important weather, such as tropical storms and thunderstorms. Right now, we are testing new hurricane models, not in use yet, that run at resolutions as high as 1 to 4 km (compared with the current global models that run with 40 km grid meshes), and have much more realistic hurricane dynamics. But in order to run those we need bigger, faster computers. They should help improve the hurricane forecasts.

TR: We're trying to predict hurricanes with modeling tools meant to predict larger weather systems?

AM: We do have a model developed especially for hurricanes that is used as one of the operational ensemble models. It was developed in the early 1990s by NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, but it is lower resolution and does not accommodate some of the crucial physical processes. Since modeling techniques and computer speeds have advanced, we are developing a new model called the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast model.

TR: How much computation do you have, and what do you need, exactly?

AM: The operational weather prediction system is an IBM massively parallel supercomputer in the Washington DC area, at the National Weather Service's National Center for Environmental Prediction. A weather model typically uses 500 to 1,000 processors in parallel. A faster computer is crucial, because then you can represent the real dynamics of a hurricane. To represent what is happening in the eyewall you need a very high resolution model and a very fast computer.

TR: The benefits seem obvious -- tighter predictions can save lives and avoid needless evacuations.

AM: They always used to say an evacuation alone costs a million dollars a mile. If you warn 50 miles of coastline, it's going to cost $50 million. I think that was pre-Katrina. We are going to look at Rita and Katrina and say they cost perhaps as much as $10 million per mile, and we are going to need much higher accuracy. A warning of 100 miles of coastline would cost $1 billion. There are lots of things we can do to improve our forecast so we can improve on our evacuation accuracy.

TR: What does the federal government spend on hurricane forecasting now, and what's needed?

AM: We put about $50 million total into everything from the hurricane center to the models. I think that if you really said "You know, this is an extraordinary problem that is going to cost, like Katrina did, $100 billion," you'd want to spend an additional couple hundred million a year to really improve as fast as possible.



To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (704752)9/29/2005 8:50:57 AM
From: Hope Praytochange  Respond to of 769670
 
Mr. Canizaro is inclined to view the flooding of New Orleans as both a tragedy and an opportunity. He notes that the city's schools were substandard, its housing stock crumbling and its crime rate among the nation's highest. "I think we have a clean sheet to start again," Mr. Canizaro said. "And with that clean sheet we have some very big opportunities."

Like many in the city's establishment, Mr. Canizaro declined to give his vision for a new New Orleans. But many locals expect Mr. Canizaro will use as a starting blueprint a report from the Committee for a Better New Orleans that he and other civic leaders have sitting on their shelves. In 2000, he started that committee, which brought together more than 100 business and community activists to talk about everything from the poor state of the city's schools to the high crime rate and preponderance of dilapidated buildings.

"Joe was very involved, coming to every meeting, really pushing people to come up with concrete proposals," said Norman C. Francis, the president of Xavier University, the nation's only historically black Catholic university. "Joe is a can-do guy; he's a go-getter, a doer," said Mr. Francis, who co-led the committee with Mr. Canizaro.

nytimes.com



To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (704752)9/29/2005 8:57:41 AM
From: Hope Praytochange  Respond to of 769670
 
Cut-Rate Homes For Middle Class Are Catching On
By DEAN E. MURPHY
NOVATO, Calif. - Janice Quinci likes nice things: fashionable clothes, dinner out with her husband, a private school for her daughter. With a household income in the six figures, Ms. Quinci can pretty much enjoy it all.

With the notable exception, until now, of a home of her own.

"We figured we would rent our whole lives," Ms. Quinci said. "We didn't really think that we could afford to have a place to ourselves."

Ms. Quinci, 29, was speaking from the front porch of her three-bedroom townhouse here in suburban Marin County, north of San Francisco. She and her husband, Vito, a salesman for a wine distributor, bought it new from a developer last November with no money down and at a steep discount. Inside, the refrigerator was pushed aside as workers laid a new kitchen floor - at no cost to the Quincis - because the original one was not up to snuff.

The Quincis might not look the part, but they are the beneficiaries of an unusual form of public housing that is gaining popularity in real-estate-obsessed America.

Some middle-class families are buying homes at budget prices made possible by government agencies, private developers, not-for-profit groups and employers.

Affordable housing, once shorthand for low rents for the poor, is being stretched like never before to include homeownership for people who are more likely to have Starbucks cash cards than food stamps in their wallets. These middle-income earners, priced out of homes from Burlington, Vt., to Santa Fe, N.M., are being offered financial breaks to live in hot real-estate markets and near their jobs.

"Our thinking is that a healthy middle class is important to the city," said Geoffrey Lewis, assistant director of policy at the Boston Redevelopment Authority, which has overseen the building of hundreds of units reserved for middle-income earners. "We want to keep these people in Boston; they are the glue in the neighborhoods and the glue in the economy as well."

Sometimes called low-cost, work force or inclusionary housing, the cut-price units are most popular in places "suffering from success," as one study described the cities where real estate costs outpaced incomes and where government officials, businesses and housing advocates were struggling to increase homeownership for all but the rich.

Unlike traditional government programs intended for the most disadvantaged, the emphasis is on people with full-time jobs who earn too much to qualify for federal assistance but too little to obtain a conventional mortgage, at least not in the cities or neighborhoods where they want to live.

Typically, those household incomes are 80 percent to 120 percent of the median income, which, in expensive metropolitan areas like San Francisco, Boston and New York, can extend into six figures for a family of four.

Nicolas P. Retsinas, director of the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard, said, "In many places where housing costs have escalated, that historical social contract appears to have been voided, the contract that if you work you can find a decent place to live."

The price breaks are usually not achieved through direct subsidies but a range of cost-cutting programs, including cities making zoning changes for developers, providing land at reduced cost, expediting approvals of building plans and allowing the construction of bigger and more expensive homes elsewhere.

In some programs, like that of Burlington Community Land Trust in Vermont, the units are subsidized with state property transfer taxes. Elsewhere, employers and lenders offer financing packages direct to buyers.

Even in New York City, where efforts to reach out to the squeezed middle class began decades ago with construction of Mitchell-Lama buildings, the ever-growing affordability problem has led to a flurry of new programs, city officials said.

About 200 blocks in the Greenpoint and Williamsburg neighborhoods of Brooklyn were rezoned in May to include incentives for developers to build housing for a range of incomes, including households earning as much 125 percent of the median, something that had previously been reserved for high-priced Manhattan.

"By creating ownership, you are giving moderate income residents a financial stake in their neighborhoods, so they benefit from the improvement rather than be hurt by it," said Shaun Donovan, the housing commissioner in New York.

The spread of the phenomenon is too new and dispersed to be quantified, government officials and housing advocates say, and so far it occupies only a small piece of the nation's affordable housing pie. Still, it is catching the attention of home builders, city planners, educators and business people across the nation, leading to workshops and seminars on the subject as well as a spate of local laws that make it simpler for developers to offer the units.

Public and private investors are also discovering the trend. Investment funds totaling $190 million have been created in the past year in Los Angeles and San Diego Counties for the purpose of building middle-income housing in so-called urban infill areas that have access to public transportation.

The funds' manager, the Phoenix Realty Group, expects to finance more than 3,000 homes in the next five years. As in many work force projects, the builders will be allowed to construct more units than typically permitted under zoning laws. The "density bonuses" enable the developer to make up the lost profit on each unit by selling more of them.

"It's an unserved niche," said Tammy Harpster, Phoenix's vice president for acquisitions in San Diego.

Conrad Egan, president of the National Housing Conference, an affordable housing advocacy group in Washington, said the stepped up focus was due in part to a "turnaround on the part of political leaders and office seekers" that the market cannot provide affordable housing for many Americans, even those who are financially secure.

"The picture has shifted because more and more constituents of these local and state leaders are affected," Mr. Egan said.

A lottery is under way for condominiums in a seven-story building on the harbor front in East Boston, with all 30 units reserved for people earning 80 percent to 120 percent of the median income, or as much as $99,000.

More than 550 other subsidized homes have been built in Boston over the past few years - some in buildings where other units sell for millions of dollars - that have been reserved for middle-income earners at prices as low as $190,000 for three bedrooms.

In South Burlington, Vt., a 60-unit condominium project opened in February, with half of the units reserved for people earning up to 140 percent of the area median income. The Burlington Community Land Trust provided a direct subsidy of $25,000 on the homes, which sold for $119,000 to $169,000.

As in most of the arrangements around the country, the Vermont buyers agreed to restrictions on the resale of the homes, including how much profit they could make in order to keep the units affordable.

"There are seven teachers in there, and a couple of them are college professors," said Brenda Torpy, executive director of the land trust. "The gap between what people earn and what they can afford is really creeping up. These people are not who you would think of as low income."

In Lincoln Heights, a neighborhood just north of downtown Los Angeles, families making double the county's median income, or about $100,000, are eligible for reduced-price condominiums now under construction. Without even advertising, the developer, AMCAL Multi-Housing Inc., has compiled a list of 2,000 hopeful buyers a year before the homes will be available.

"It's not surprising," said Percy Vaz, the company's president. "The alternative is for people to go out to Riverside, Palmdale or Lancaster and spend two and a half hours on the freeway."

Not so long ago here in Novato, a bedroom community in Marin County about 30 miles north of San Francisco, the Quincis' household income of roughly $111,000 would have disqualified them from any housing breaks. But in Marin County the median sale price for houses in June was about $925,000. The Quincis would need to triple their income to afford that.

Under a complex formula devised by Novato city officials, some new housing on the former Hamilton Air Force Base is being offered at reduced prices to people with household incomes up to 120 percent of the median.

The Quincis are at the top end of that scale, meaning they had to pay more for their townhouse than families that earn less, but they qualified just the same. The couple paid $390,000, about 30 percent below market value; while single-family houses on the former base not part of the program sell at market value, recently as much as $1.8 million, real estate agents say.

"Often in our culture, it is the middle class that gets left out of everything," said Roderick J. Wood, the city manager in Beverly Hills who held the same post in Novato when the Hamilton project was conceived. "We wanted to help that group."

Ms. Quinci, who grew up in Novato but had been living out of town with her husband at his grandmother's house, said the special housing was the only way she could afford to move back home. A high school friend lives a few doors away, as does a high school science teacher.

"We see deer out back and wild turkey, and there are rabbits in the morning," said Ms. Quinci, a stay-at-home mother, her year-old son cuddled on her shoulder and her 3-year-old daughter rubbing her eyes after an afternoon nap.

Preferences in Novato were offered to police officers, firefighters, teachers and other public employees, but some of the 351 affordable homes are also available to the general public through lotteries, the most recent one in August.

On lottery day, it is a lot like Christmas, said Laura Levine, the Hamilton project manager for Northbay Family Homes, a nonprofit housing company that has overseen the sales.

"If you're over 18," Ms. Levine said, "come on down. It's a beautiful place."



To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (704752)9/29/2005 1:27:57 PM
From: Thomas A Watson  Respond to of 769670
 
Kenneth E. Phillipps hate speak and lies about the President and any he hates which is the mindless repeating of democrat central propaganda is the puss of public dialog.

Stupid dems still have only one public policy face. Object to the President with whatever lies come to mind.

Skankoids end up losing unless 110% of registered voters show up. And only in a state where the microsoft virus comes from can such as that occur and be accepted.

That is not nasty, that is just the Kenneth E. Phillipps way for worse or worser.