Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (42658)	9/29/2005 11:15:26 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 110194

Greenspan raised short term rates 275%. Oil has been over $60 for a long time now. Gasoline is even more expensive. Greenspan said he was targeting speculation in RE. Interest rate curve is flat. Credit card delinquencies are raising. Two huge hurricanes destroyed significant portion of America's oil/gas industry. New Orleans has become a swamp. Natural gas is over $14. There well may be a shortage of natural gas if coming winter is bad. Mutual funds have no inflows. How come the market hasn't taken a notice? Bulls are fuming about coming X-mas rally and huge 2006 GDP growth, but I feel like it's a major poot buying opportunity with the VIX that low. The problem is that I've felt like this about 50 times already this year alone. -ng-

To: russwinter who wrote (42658)	9/29/2005 11:15:49 PM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 110194

cftc.gov cftc.gov As of last week, small traders were long net 208734 e-mini contracts (options and futures), or 208632 e-mini futures contracts, and getting longer. Their counterparties were da boyz and the pigmen, with roughly 100,000 e-minis short each. It will be interesting to see what happens this week. The big SP contracts also show small traders net long, with their counterparties split 50-50. E-mini futures-related activity pushes the markets most these days, so it is difficult for me to see how this stock market rally can last.

To: russwinter who wrote (42658)	9/30/2005 10:48:50 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

Amazing and sickening spectacle of synthetic economics: ramps to get bonuses in? the big slate of IPOs? window dressing? or just silly season? The August (before Katrina) numbers show another negative savings rate of 0.7%. That's even showing up in domestic mutual funds cash flows, which have now declined eight weeks in a row as Joe and Martha no doubt are reaching in there to subsist. Heating bills per household are looking $400-$600 higher than last year. Message 21750569 But it's not just fuel bills, it's debt service: the one year Libor used to reset ARM upticked this month to 4.41 from 4.31, just steady sandpapering. As we now enter the 4th quarter a big cohort of subprime IO with two year adjustables gets nailed, followed by even more into 2006. idorfman.com idorfman.com Throw in credit card minimum changes and the wheels are coming off. M1 which measures "daily life" funds is swooning. Meanwhile the 2-5-10 year is basically flat: 4.16-4.16-4.31, hardly a sign of loose money. Just a matter of time before the T-bills pop up there too. wallstreetexaminer.com post 5: Treasury pays down $5B as the 2 year note settles. The money comes from a $12B TIO expiration. Treasury has a lot of bills to pay today and Monday with end of month paychecks going out today and Social Security checks going out Monday. There are another $15B in TIO expirations Monday, and $8B Tuesday.