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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Logain Ablar who wrote (42687)	10/4/2005 5:54:57 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 69293

One supplementary comment to that article. A 2 percent increase in mortgage rates on a 4 percent mortgage is a 50 percent increase in a borrowers payments. That is is the mircle and plague of low interest rates. When one is leverage out to the hilt to buy a home it does not take much to push one over the edge. One hopes most people locked into longer term lower mortgage rates, but I doubt that is the case. I am not sure most people are prudent fiscal managers. Let's see what Friday's employment report brings. We won't see the effects of the recently announced layoff till next month, but the "L" word is starting to be heard more and more again in recent weeks.

To: Logain Ablar who wrote (42687)	10/4/2005 6:26:56 PM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 69293

Hi Tim, Gross eyeballs it as housing peaking 4 to 6 quarters after the central bank raises rates and about 200 basis points of rate increase. The CB then raise rates another 2 Quarters for a total cyclical increase of 300 basis points. that's the FED study averages. and We're 5 quarters and 275 basis points into our current adventure. .......So the great housing cool off should be near. John

To: Logain Ablar who wrote (42687)	10/5/2005 3:42:42 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 69293

Tim, It has been a while since I have had the time to review some composite indices and some component stocks. It looks like most of the indices have gone neutral with some component stocks going negative. That means no new highs on the indice without the stock undergoing severe trend changes. INTC, MSFT and ORCL all in negative trends. The only strength appears to be in telecom and only in selected sectors. After years of putting off upgrades it looks like the carriers are spending on the last mile and wireless. Strong QCOM, TLAB, CIEN, JDSU, CIEN, ADTN. SOX is a near a high for the year but AMAT's negative trend says it is going no where but down. BRCM only strong Semi stock on my list. EMC is undergoing a trend change to positive, but the rest of the stocks in the sector don't lool that strong. XOM and BGO my surrogate for oil and gold seem to indicate some trend change is about to happen in commodity prices. Not such how to confirm this one. OIH is a a high, but most of that is related to the gulf storms I think. Comments on selected stocks and indices: INTC in confirmed downtrend: 139.142.147.19 IBM is neutral to slightly bearish 139.142.147.19 MSFT confirmed downtrend: 139.142.147.19 SPY is neutral , but expect test of 120.5 area. A break of 120 is a confirmed down trend. 139.142.147.19 QQQQ is neutral: 139.142.147.19 DIA is neutral to slightly bearish. A break of 103 confirms a change to a bearish trend. 139.142.147.19 SMH is neutral, but AMAT is in a negative trend so SMH does not make a new high without it. Note that AMAT reports late in the Q. No need to be a hero here. 139.142.147.19 AMAT negative trend. 139.142.147.19 CYMI neutral to slightly negative: 139.142.147.19 CCMP negative trend: 139.142.147.19 ADTN strong up trend: 139.142.147.19 MRVL potential trend change from strong to neutral 139.142.147.19 BRCM on fire. Strong up trend: 139.142.147.19 CIEN change in trend from neutral to up trend: 139.142.147.19 JDSU strong up trend: 139.142.147.19 QCOM strong up trend: 139.142.147.19 TLAB strong up trend: 139.142.147.19 CSCO negative trend changing to neutral: 139.142.147.19 JNPR confirmed negative trend: 139.142.147.19 GLW neutral with possible trend change to negative: 139.142.147.19 EMC negative with a trend change to postive. Need one to 3 more days to confirm. 139.142.147.19 WFII potential trend change to positive. Need 3 more days to confirm. 139.142.147.19 ORCL falling off a cliff. 139.142.147.19 BGO potential trend change to negative: 139.142.147.19 XOM on verge of a trend change: 139.142.147.19