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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (38510)	10/5/2005 2:23:41 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Diverse Effects of Expensive Oil The tipping point is reached when the have-nots’ spending is constrained. In Australia and the UK, for example, their consumers were unable to spend more when their property markets stopped rising. The tightening by their central banks led to this tipping point. The Fed is also raising interest rates. Over the next 12 months, the US housing market may hit a tipping point like those in Australia and the UK. When US housing values stop rising, the US household sector will be unable to increase its leverage. The demand for oil is likely to take a serious tumble at this point, I believe. We are already seeing cracks in the story of liquidity holding up demand despite high oil prices. Those that do not have access to liquidity are being affected. Even though their share of global GDP may be small, their plight could still make a big difference. For those who do not own property in the US, high oil prices are squeezing them hard. Some emerging economies are not ‘hot’ and do not receive foreign liquidity inflow and they are also being squeezed. morganstanley.com

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (38510)	10/5/2005 2:33:17 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Air Force Enlisted In Mosquito Battle Rita-delivered salt-grass variety bedevils workers across East Texas chron.com Hurricane Rita has brought East Texas a plague of vicious, salt-grass mosquitoes so annoying that officials have called in the U.S. Air Force. Workers trying to restore power and complete other repairs are being molested by swarms of the aggressive mosquitoes that hunt even during the day. Air Force officials agreed to assist in an anti-mosquito spraying program. Giant Air Force C-130 Hercules aircraft will be spraying dibrom pesticide in the evenings, and county aircraft will spray a permethrin-based insecticide diluted with water in the mornings. The Air Force also will take on the task of quelling far more dense mosquito populations in neighboring Cameron Parish in Louisiana that are blown across Sabine Lake into Jefferson County or are attracted by refinery lights there, Domingue said. ...

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (38510)	10/5/2005 2:36:12 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Haim: FNM drove me crazy as well. I held shorts on if for many moons and didn't make a dime. best, Earlie

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (38510)	10/5/2005 3:01:32 PM
From: benwood	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

"fundamentals rarely count in today’s financial markets and in most cases do not work as anticipated" This is exactly why I hardly pay any attention to anybody's recommendations and why I have so little interest in finding that next great company/investment (except PMs of course). I think in 6-10 years, investing based on fundamentals will still be out of vogue but will stealthily become the best long term strategy once again. By that time, the stock markets will have bounced along some bottom for a couple or five years and nobody will want anything to do with them, dividends (of the surviving few) will be much more attractive, a gargantuan amount of garbage will have been flushed out the system with possibly several massive shocks (financial, war, mother nature), the real estate bubble will have withered for years, social patterns will have changed dramatically (smaller homes, renting, economical cars, higher unemployment, far higher savings rate, at least one if not two administrations and their crooks thrown out of office). Ultimately, I think the collapse of the consumer society will provide a great deal of social unrest -- I really can't visualize what that transformation will look like but the demise of the one hobby of millions of Americans will leave a gaping void. The sad thing to me my belief that the propagation of the bubble(s) has virtually guaranteed no buffer for these United States -- manufacturing base has been gutted and consumers are debt laden. Where will the impetus come from to restore our vitality? Look only to the aftermath of busts in Central and South America to see how difficult it will be, or perhaps the UK, because we'll be trying to restart our engines at the same time they've been fine tuning them in Asia for 20 years running.