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Strategies & Market Trends : Moomin Valley (formerly Troll-free Zone) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: skinowski who wrote (1155)	10/9/2005 2:21:59 PM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2852

I didn't "suggest" the triangle scenario You did - you said it started at the beginning of 2004. It is s scenario I've looked at before, but don't favor much. And there is another one where the whole move on the SPX since 2002 is a triangle, which really doesn't work so well... If that triangle scenario is right I see it as B of B with a wave C taking off shortly. Seems very unlikely now. My proposed ED starts in the summer of 2004. On the Comp and SPX wave 3 is higher than wave 1, but on the NDX it falls short. Still not my favored scenario. The favored scenario has us in the beginnings of C down with A starting at the beginning of 2005. The reason I am shifting away from the this one is the strong support my model shows for any move of even a couple of percent down on the NDX. Bascially once we hit that 89 day BB we would bounce. I get this by simulating forward using random numbers in a spreadsheet and seeing what happens.