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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tejek who wrote (254698)	10/11/2005 3:27:22 AM
From: GUSTAVE JAEGER	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1570843

Re: Therefore the ostracizing of Turkey portends the unconscious fancy of a European-Turkish war.... You have an overactive imagination. Hollywood wants/needs you! ;~) This is no "Hollywood stuff": [...] Diplomatic efforts by the United Nations and the United States to avert conflict over Cyprus have been hampered by several factors, including the recent decisions by the European Union to deny Turkey membership in the EU and to begin admission talks with Cyprus; the US sale of MGM-140 ATACMS ballistic missiles to Turkey and Greece and the role of the United States as the leading arms supplier to both countries, which are among the world's leading arms importers; contradictory political and commercial interests and crises that compete for international attention; and limited international influence on Russian, Cypriot, and Turkish decision making. There are several possible scenarios for the evolution of this dispute. The most dangerous would be for Turkey to carry out its threat to attack ships carrying missile components while they are in transit, or to strike the batteries as they are being deployed on Cyprus. The conflict could escalate to regional war if Greece retaliates against Turkey as pledged in its Joint Defense Doctrine with Cyprus. In response to Turkish threats to destroy the missile systems while in transit, Russia has said that an attack on Russian ships would be an act of war. Although it is far less likely than a Greek military response, if Russian technicians or officials are among the casualties of such an attack, Russia might also respond militarily. The most propitious but least likely scenario would be the conclusion of a comprehensive agreement on the demilitarization of Cyprus, which would include cancellation of the S-300PMU-1 sale. More probable routes by which conflict could be averted include the establishment of a UN- or US-enforced no-fly zone over the island. Greek Cypriot sources have indicated that they would consider canceling delivery of the batteries in exchange for a flight ban, and the United States reportedly has offered to enforce a moratorium on military flights over the island. Turkish and Russian officials, however, have rejected these proposals. Alternatively, the S-300PMU-1s might be shipped to Cyprus but held in storage rather than being deployed. Again, despite indications of support for this idea by Greek and Greek Cypriot officials, both Turkey and Russia are likely to reject such an alternative. Finally, one or both sides might back away from conflict; Turkey could refrain from carrying out attacks against the S-300PMU-1s, or Cyprus and Russia could agree on delaying delivery of the missiles, or on canceling the deal entirely. This alternative might involve Cyprus' acquisition of an air-defense system with a shorter range. In all but the most optimistic of scenarios, the increase in tension is apt to lead to escalating military preparations and acquisitions. While the interests of none of the actors involved in the S-300PMU-1 dispute would be served by military conflict, the risks of miscalculation and unintended escalation are serious. The pattern of reciprocal provocation, belligerent rhetoric, and military brinksmanship should arouse international concern that these Mediterranean states – armed with advanced missile systems by foreign suppliers – may be headed toward war. Michael Barletta, July 1998. © Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies cns.miis.edu

To: tejek who wrote (254698)	10/11/2005 4:00:11 AM
From: GUSTAVE JAEGER	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1570843

Re: ...the economic gap between Turkey and Spain now is more formidable than was the gap between Spain and the rest of western Europe when they wanted admittance into the EU. Wrong. Just look at the data below, they are from 1999, that is, prior to Turkey's lira crisis of Feb 2001() which subsequently warped them as a "distorting mirror". You can see that Turkey used to fare much better than many EU and would-be-EU countries. I suspect the 2001 financial crisis itself was engineered by those in NY and London who oppose Turkey's EU bid since a major result was the dramatic collapse of Turkey's GDP when expressed in euros. Contrariwise, Turkey's entry into the eurozone should dramatically improve its economic indicators and make them reflect the country's real strengths and potential. POLAND* LEADER: President Aleksander Kwasniewski POPULATION: 38,649,914 GDP PER CAPITA: $3,512 UNEMPLOYMENT: 11.3 percent EU: Slotted for membership NATO: Partnership for Peace member Poland, with its powerful emerging economy, represents part of the potential of post-Soviet Eastern Europe, although it still does not fulfill EU economic criteria to qualify for membership. It will join NATO in April which rankles historic rival Russia, but officials are confident that sentiment will dissipate as economic interests between the two countries take center stage. PORTUGAL LEADER: Prime Minister Antonio Guterres POPULATION: 9,931,045 GDP PER CAPITA: $7,600 UNEMPLOYMENT: 6.8 percent EU: Member since 1986 Euro: Yes NATO: Yes EUROMETER: Euro-happy After a dazzling economic comeback to qualify for the EU's new currency, the euro-zone's poorest and most backward member is optimistic about what the euro could do for the Portuguese economy. One cause for caution: inflation, which has already surpassed acceptable levels for the euro-zone. ROMANIA LEADER: President Emil Constantinescu POPULATION: 22,570,000 GDP PER CAPITA: $1,544 UNEMPLOYMENT: 6.0 percent EU: No NATO: Partnership for Peace member Still struggling to recover from the maniacal years under Nicolae Ceausescu, Romania's population is dealing with one of the highest rates of AIDS infection on the continent, in addition to a wracked economy. The door is open to inclusion in the European Union, but not until the country can get its house in order. RUSSIAN FEDERATION LEADER: President Boris Yeltsin POPULATION: 147,140,000 GDP PER CAPITA: $3,143 UNEMPLOYMENT: 9.0 percent EU: No NATO: Partnership for Peace member Russia's claim to European status has always been a moot point. The country opposes NATO membership for the former Soviet republics, but, in its weakened state, can do little more than growl. With Russia's economy in free fall and Communists and nationalists in the ascendant, the distance between Moscow and Western Europe can only grow. [...] SLOVAKIA LEADER: Prime Minister Mikulas Dzurinda POPULATION: 5,380,694 GDP PER CAPITA: $3,615 UNEMPLOYMENT: 11.6 percent EU: No NATO: Partnership for Peace member While the fall from power of strongman Vladimir Meciar appears to promise democracy at last for Slovakia, no one knows how long the good times will last. There are no immediate plans for Slovakia to join the EU, although the country is a participant in NATO's initiative for a cohesive European security arrangement. SLOVENIA LEADER: President Milan Kucan POPULATION: 1,986,848 GDP PER CAPITA: $9,055 UNEMPLOYMENT: 7.3 percent (1996) EU: Slotted for membership NATO: Partnership for Peace member One of Europe's smallest nations, created out of the breakup of Yugoslovia in 1991, Slovenia is an emerging democracy with one of the highest GDPs in Eastern and Central Europe. Slovenia should qualify for admission to the EU after the turn of the century. SPAIN LEADER: Prime Minister José Maria Aznar Lopez POPULATION: 39,107,912 GDP PER CAPITA: $10,482 UNEMPLOYMENT: 20.8 percent EU: Member since 1986 Euro: Yes NATO: Yes EUROMETER: Euro-happy The biggest recipient of EU funds, Spain hopes that the euro will bring much- needed growth to the country's economy and financial markets. Spanish banks have already begun to issue statements in pesetas and euros. [...] TURKEY LEADER: Prime Minister Mesut Yilmaz POPULATION: 63,528,225 GDP PER CAPITA:$6,100 UNEMPLOYMENT: 5.9 percent EU: No NATO: Yes [...] time.com () Friday, 31 August, 2001, 09:37 GMT 10:37 UK* Turkey's economy shrinks The financial crisis that has gripped Turkey since the beginning of the year has had a dramatic effect on economic output. The country's gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 9.3% year on year in the second quarter, official figures have shown. The government and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are aiming for a 5.5% contraction in gross national product - which includes money earned overseas - for the whole of 2001. The second-quarter figure will add further fuel to the perception that Turkey's crisis has much further to run, despite recent increasing optimism from government and policymakers. International aid The IMF and the World Bank are lending Turkey $15.7bn to support a recovery programme built around a floating currency. International investors have put Turkey in the firing line since fears emerged about the state's solvency earlier this year. The collapse in sentiment caused an exodus of investors, which in turned has provoked slumps on the country's financial markets. The government has promised to get its house in order. Painful change But change is proving painful. Since the Turkish lira was forced to float in February this year the currency has lost about half its value against the US dollar and an estimated 600,000 workers have lost their jobs. In June, the IMF suspended its loan programme following allegations of government foot-dragging on agreed reforms. The programme was restarted in July with the release of a loan tranche after one of the government's main opponents of the IMF plan was sacked. Doubts remain, however, on the ability of Turkey's coalition government to push through painful reforms. Opposition to IMF-mandated reforms has already caused considerable political unrest. news.bbc.co.uk

To: tejek who wrote (254698)	10/11/2005 4:22:01 AM
From: GUSTAVE JAEGER	Respond to of 1570843

Re: There has always been a bias against the southern countries by northern Europeans........but they were all inside 'the same family'. I think Turkey is perceived as being outside 'the family'. But the "family" is growing, Ted... Fifty years ago, most Frenchmen likewise perceived Germans, Italians, Britons, Dutchmen, etc., outside the French family. Ditto the other European countries.... Frankly, the Roman emperors must be turning in their graves at the sight of their European heirs' reluctance to stretch the "Empire". 450 million Christian Europeans afraid of 90 million Muslim Turks?! It was always Rome's policy to welcome and and coopt its "barbarian" marches into its security, trade, and cultural, nexus. The Roman pantheon was always wide enough to accommodate new gods.... Gus