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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (38927)	10/11/2005 12:57:06 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

UK economy ´may have contracted in Q3 for first time in 13 years´ - economist Tuesday, October 11, 2005 3:14:31 PM afxpress.com UK economy 'may have contracted in Q3 for first time in 13 years' - economist LONDON (AFX) - The UK economy may have contracted for the first time in 13 years during the third quarter, a leading London-based economic consultancy warned today Though its base case scenario is for 0.2 pct quarterly GDP growth in the three months to September, Capital Economics said the dire UK trade data for August suggests that GDP may in fact have fallen Its chief economist Jonathan Loynes said the likely widening in the trade deficit during the quarter from the previous quarter suggests that the negative effect on real growth could be as big as 1 pct A monthly trade in goods and services deficit of 4 bln stg in September (similar to that in July and August once the Hurricane Katrina effect is excluded) would give a Q3 trade deficit of 12 bln stg against Q2's 9.8 bln This 2.2 bln widening, said Loynes, is equivalent to 0.7 pct of quarterly nominal GDP and would reduce the level of nominal GDP by that amount, other things being equal "Provided then that the other components of growth behaved in a similar way as they did in Q2, this could mean that GDP fell in the third quarter for the first time since the second quarter of 1992," he said Loynes conceded that some other elements of GDP will make stronger contributions than they did in Q2, when the economy expanded by 0.5 pct "Stockbuilding, in particular, knocked 0.6 pct off real GDP growth in Q2, fully offsetting the positive effect from net trade," he said Even if there were some offsetting components the economy may only just expand by 0.2 pct during the quarter, the smallest since Q2 1996, said Loynes That, he said, would leave GDP on track to expand by just 1.5 pct or so in 2005, well below the Bank of England's 2.0 pct forecast If so, the rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee will be forced to cut back its 2.0 pct 2005 growth forecast in its November Inflation Report, escalating expectations of another interest rate cut during the month Third quarter growth of 0.2 pct would also leave Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown facing mounting difficulties on the public finance front, said Loynes "The weakness of activity and the likely impact on borrowing increases the likelihood that, at some point, taxes will need to rise to put the public finances back onto a more sustainable footing," he added

To: Tommaso who wrote (38927)	10/11/2005 1:15:39 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Neuraminidase Inhibitors The neuraminidase inhibitors are oseltamivir (Tamiflu)1 which is a tablet, and zanamivir (Relenza)2 which is an inhaler. The mechanism of action is discussed in Influenza Primer II. Both these drugs are believed potentially effective against the known strains of H5N13 although a partially resistant virus was observed in one patient who had received Tamiflu in the hospital late in the course of her illness. Most attention has been given to Tamiflu because it is a tablet, which is easy to administer consistently. Relenza, on the other hand, is more difficult to administer because proper use of a dry-powder inhaler requires some skill. It can also provoke an asthmatic attack. Both drugs can be used to treat influenza; only Tamiflu is approved to prevent it, although evidence shows Relenza is also effective and approval for this purpose is pending. These drugs are also effective against all strains of influenza A, unlike vaccines which are specific only to the strain for which they were designed. Neuraminidase inhibitors must be taken within 48 hours—preferably within 36 hours—of the onset of flu symptoms. They do not ‘kill’ the flu virus but merely slow the virus replication down to a level where the immune system can more easily destroy it. Thus they can reduce the severity and duration of a flu illness. While these medications can slow down the virus, they do not change the patient’s immune response, and at this point nobody knows if these drugs can prevent the onset of a cytokine storm, which is possibly one way H5N1 kills formerly healthy people. Once under way, a cytokine storm is self-sustaining like a forest fire: it may be stopped when spotted immediately, but soon goes beyond current means of control. Neuraminidase inhibitors alone can’t stop a cytokine storm in progress. Most patients in Vietnam were not treated with Tamiflu within the effective time frame. The benefit to these patients was questionable—some lived, some died, and whether Tamiflu was a determining factor of those outcomes is not clear. In one case a man and his brother were either both infected by drinking raw duck’s blood, or one brother caught it from close contact with the other in the hospital. The first brother with symptoms arrived at the hospital after the window for starting Tamiflu treatment had closed and died. The second brother’s symptoms began a few days after the first one took ill. He received Tamiflu within the recommended window and survived. How much of his survival has to do with the Tamiflu and how much due to his own constitution is unknown. Tamiflu can also be used prophylactically to prevent flu infection. When used in this way however, it is only effective for as long as it is being taken—there is no lasting protection once the pills have run out. To keep a nurse protected for the duration of a two-month outbreak would take at least a 56 day supply (1 pill/day x 7 days x 8 weeks). It is not FDA-approved (no data) for >8 weeks.4 A patient who has the flu and takes a neuraminidase inhibitor during early treatment and then recovers, will have antibodies to the H5N1 flu and should be immune or partially immune to re-infection. If another H5N1 strain infects this patient, the illness would be milder, comparable to the seasonal flus. This is also true of those who survive the flu without taking any drugs. fluwikie.com

To: Tommaso who wrote (38927)	10/11/2005 1:32:13 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

FTCR: Internal Memos Show Oil Companies Intentionally Limited Refining Capacity to Drive Up Gasoline Prices releases.usnewswire.com

To: Tommaso who wrote (38927)	10/11/2005 1:44:39 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Respond to of 116555

But the only men who buy such vehicles don't have tools. <G>

To: Tommaso who wrote (38927)	10/11/2005 3:52:34 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

WHY GREENSPAN NEEDS TO KEEP HIS NEW PORSCHE SO now we know one reason Alan Greenspan's Fed has been so out of sync with the mood of the American consumer — the Fed Chief hasn't driven a car in 18 years! That revelation came courtesy of Greenspan's wife, NBC's Andrea Mitchell, after her husband was the lucky winner of a 2006 Porsche Boxster at a charity auction in Washington this week. With no need to fill 'er up since the summer of 1987, it's little wonder that, until recently, Greenspan has been more focused on deflation than inflation nypost.com