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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: energyplay who wrote (1125)	10/12/2005 3:26:33 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217551

Good post EP. The market clearing processes over the last half decade have been proceeding nicely. Many large shocks are already cleared from the system. Enron, Globalstar, Global Crossing, Worldcom, Dot.coms, over-margined day traders, irrational exuberance, Twin Towers, Taleban, high oil prices, low interest rates, have all been done or underway so long that they are not shocking or making of cascading collapse as I used to worry would happen in the late 1990s as it became obvious that irrational exuberance was due for a hefty crunch to put things back in balance. We still have to see the completion of interest rate rises and people have still to fully adapt to high oil prices and the deficits have to reduce. Plus there are other fun and games to sort out. TeoTwawKi is not yet! With financial relativity theory continuing as expected, we should soon see Dow 16,000 [albeit 5 years later than I expected, Feb 2002 - it took a lonngggggg time to go through the valley of tears]. Mqurice

To: energyplay who wrote (1125)	10/12/2005 3:31:50 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 217551

"big changes, but mostly in slow motion" consider tectonic plate movement. It holds and then release all energy in 1 minute.

To: energyplay who wrote (1125)	10/12/2005 4:33:58 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 217551

Still the "big changes, but mostly in slow motion". >>Rapid economic change invariably means disruption to sectors and geographic regions bringing about political pressures to alleviate pains of adjustment; there are congenial tendencies in our economic institutions and political processes to slow things down, to seek breathing time, and to retard the pace of structural change through measures that shield disrupted enterprises or industrial sectors from global forces of change.<< Slow motion is artificially dictate by the political process which is usually glacial. Case in point: Germany under Merkel set for deep paralysis taipeitimes.com This is in fact not that bad so that we can eat the lunch of the developed countries at leisure :-)

To: energyplay who wrote (1125)	10/12/2005 9:24:12 AM
From: KyrosL	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217551

Good post EP. The US is by no means in dire straits. It is one of the lightest taxed countries and can fix its fiscal, trade, and foreign policy issues virtually overnight, if it wants to. It is simply suffering one of its occasional periods of bad governance. What you say about the spread of US risk is right to the point. I bet that most of the risk from exotic US housing loans to junk bonds is being held by foreigners, via swaps and other derivatives, some even by their central banks. If the collapse ever comes, there is a good chance that the US will emerge on top again. We all need to keep in mind that what makes a country great is not the amount of steel or other goods it produces. The Soviet Union was by far the greatest producer of steel at its zenith. Germany and Japan lay in ashes and produced zero goods not too long ago. A country's key strength is rather the basic structure and traditions of its society and how those structures and practices agree with modern capitalism. The rule of law, lack of corruption, and respect fo the commons are paramount in this respect. The fact that there are books describing in great detail the relatively infrequent corruption in corporate America, and no such books describing such corruption in some other countries is what makes America relatively strong. Kyros PS Of course that does not mean I am bullish here. Still at more than 70% cash.

To: energyplay who wrote (1125)	10/12/2005 8:03:45 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 217551

Hello EP, <<but for those of us are living through it, it seems to take a long time>> ... thank goodness and enjoying it, for, like I like to remind Maurice, the trip is long. I am still in Shanghai, all looks well, the officialdom apparently aim for continuing 8-10% per annum growth for the next five years over the entire landscape. Taxi rides from airport to hotel went up by about 15%. All hotels are choked with guests. Reservation required one day guarantee, not refundable if cancellation. The Formulae One crowds are in town, with full crew, press, and the whole lots of yards. Interesting uptick. The European companies, with strong Euros, are all of a sudden gunho on China investment again, and am even hearing from companies without ex-Europe overseas investment knocking on my e-mail. Amazing. Manufacturing & R&D deals mostly. Lots of European companies global main Board Meetings are being held in Shanghai before year end. One outfit recently had a strike back home, and the CEO/chairman couldn't get in the door of HQ building. Now the man wants out, completely out of the offending country. GoodYear opened their AsiaPacific HQ in ... no, not Tokyo, Hong Kong or Singagpore, but Shanghai and looking to cut cost, but no, not in China. There has also been a sharp pickup in inquiries regarding offshore reinvoicing services from N.America, or so goes the rumor mill in HK, and so it appears that the electorates are voting with their wallets, and their hearts and minds are following, by and by. The believers are new, enthusiastic, and has strong momentum. So we have another round of TeoTwawKi shift of the center of gravity, not noticeable at the periphery, but in anyone's face if he happens to be situated on one of many tectonic plates that happens to be moving at any moment. I figure once the moolah movement is more mature, the bottom will drop out somewhere. And once folks figure out the that a mispricing has taken place in some parts, the buy orders will come back something ferocious, as all try to save themselves by piling on the last train that is leaving the station. Buy any dips in commodities. Buy more if they crash. Chugs, J