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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hoyasaxa who wrote (22245)	10/12/2005 1:30:52 PM
From: Bob Rudd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78741

You just read em...It hurts to admit being wrong. I was right about the jump...as were you, but the market says the road ahead is ugly. If the market turns I may follow. Often my style is to hang on, but as I posted, I've been down this road before....Last year's Florida hurricane trade was over in 3 weeks or so...I hung on and sold at a loss, because I expected more...this time, I've repeated the error by not selling sooner [the magnitude of it fooled me], but I still eked out 3.6%. It's really tough to sell when you're deep underwater, especially as a value investor...I'm still holding UTSI, but I can't make a good case for doing so. Wish I'd cut that loss earlier. Longer term: Currently FLE is ~70% RV's, but MH and RV production are interchangeable. If MH biz which has been in a depression for several years [since ~99] due to prior credit excesses, turns on demand for low cost housing it may offset RV softness due to high gas prices. If gas prices drop, RV's may not be so soft...they've actually been pretty resilient up to just the recent gas spike. The market sold off on Thor's good outlook today, so the Katrita boom is being discounted...the soft patch beyond that is getting the focus.