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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (39097)	10/12/2005 11:52:47 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Personal Bankruptcies Soar globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mish PS I am not sure if the Surprise surprise surprise link in the post is reliable. I received warning messages about it after posting. This one might work better wavsource.com

To: mishedlo who wrote (39097)	10/13/2005 3:41:41 AM
From: Chispas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Crudele - WILL the Dow Jones index fall beneath the 10,000 level this week or next? Notice I didn't leave room for the third choice: that the closely watched indicator of America's financial well-being could actually avoid crashing through what amounts to investing's brick wall. It's going to happen. And a report tomorrow morning on consumer prices could be just the thing that makes investors finally say — "get me the hell out of this market." Rewind to a couple of months ago. Investors were sleepwalking through a relatively carefree summer with stock prices enjoying the balmy breezes despite the fact that rising oil prices and a stubborn Federal Reserve were whipping up a storm. As the headline said on one of my rare Sunday columns: "Beware The Fall." That's been a theme of my columns since then. The stock market wanted to be oblivious to all the bad stuff happening around it — even ignoring the damaging effects of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita for a while and foolishly thinking the storms would knock some sense into Fed chief Alan Greenspan. But reality does have a way of sneaking up on Wall Street. Back when my first warning was published on Aug. 14, the Dow stood at 10,634. It is now 418 points lower, with much of the decline coming all-too-predictably after professional money managers were able to lock in their third-quarter gains — as pathetic as those performances were. The Dow is down over 5 percent so far this year; the Nasdaq index over 6 percent and the Standard & Poor's 500 half that. What now? Just about everything seems to be going wrong. Tomorrow's report on consumer prices could cause more angst than usual because hurricane-related gains in energy costs could send the CPI flying. Wall Street is expecting a 0.6 percent jump in the CPI but it is really anyone's guess as to where the number will be. Worse — at least for investors — is the fact that a big CPI jump could end up giving Social Security recipients a major cost of living hike and lead to newfound fears about the solvency of that retirement system. Last Friday's employment numbers — with a blind eye to what the hurricanes did to the labor force — weren't bad enough to make the Fed back off its wrongheaded campaign to raise interest rates. In fact, public comments by Fed officials (as well as the minutes from past policy meetings) indicate that Greenspan and his accomplices are not changing their mind about making money more expensive to borrow. Corporate profits gains are expected to remain robust. But like the Roger Maris home run record, each of the profit performances will come with an asterisk — can they be repeated if energy costs remain high? The last time the Dow closed below 10,000 was a year ago. Doing it again this year is inevitable — although the pros did desperately try to rally stocks yesterday. The only question left is: Is the market sick enough to get back down to the post-bubble lows of October (yes, October) 2002? (Catch my Ask John Q&A column in Sunday's Post. And if you have a Q that you'd like me to plAy with, send it to jcrudele@nypost.com or mail it to me at New York Post, 1211 6th Ave., New York, N.Y. 10036).... Registration Site : nypost.com

To: mishedlo who wrote (39097)	10/13/2005 8:22:29 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

I agree the bear market is resuming, but Prechter is a charlatan with an awful forecasting record and anyone relying on him is playing a dangerous game.